One of my favorite things to do all summer is collect Big East projections and line ’em all up to create one big repository. I’ve done it each of the past 3 years and find it not only makes me smarter about non-BE teams, it also helps give me perspective.
And in years like Marquette had last season, where they just demolish absolutely all expectations, it’s nice to have receipts all in one place.
We’re just at the opening stages of this endeavor, so I won’t open up that Google Sheet to the public just yet, but here are a few of the early full-D1 rankings that I’ve come across so far.
It’s pretty easy to see outliers in this format for any given team, but another visualization I find helpful is to plot this in terms of range of projections, like below.
Marquette, UConn and Creighton have a fairly slim range of expected outcomes while the bottom of the conference is all over the place. Just a little taste of the pre-consensus consensus.
Win Matrix
Another viz I’m obsessed with is TRank’s WinMatrix. This only looks at conference games, but gives you one model’s projected range of outcomes based on 50,000 simulations of the season. I love how the dark boxes make it super easy for the eye to navigate
Which is not to say this sim is all-knowing. Before last season, Bart’s model didn’t have 1 instance of Marquette winning 17 games, and actually saw it as more likely that MU would only tally 3.
What this is: one piece of info to digest and track, to be able to assess preseason expectations.
Betting Odds
Of course, if you think you have a pretty good handle on what the season will look like and want to wager on it, I put together a compilation of current Big East odds in 4 separate betting platforms. (Sorry, peeps in Wisconsin)
I’m fascinated at the fact Caesers gives MU the same odds to win the Big East as St. John’s, not in the sense that I agree, far from it, but as a potential area to secure the biggest bag.
Seeing the aggregate, it’s still quite true that there’s a logjam at the top and any of MU, UConn or Creighton could be favorites to win win the league, depending on what you value.
These will probably change as we get closer to the season (depending on injuries and such), so just wanted to put that disclaimer out there.
MU Scrimmage Videos
Finally, the Marquette Blue and Gold scrimmage from this past Saturday was our best look at the team since the open practice in August. I wasn’t able to attend, so am extremely thankful for all those that recorded for us.
And if you want some takeaways from the scrimmage, Ben Steele’s report is tremendous.
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