Advertisements

Marquette 2020 Minute Projections

I took a stab at mapping out the minutes earlier this summer (where I also analyzed the results of the prior year) and not much has really changed. But now, with a few box scores and scrimmages to learn from, as well as fresh injury data to incorporate, I present the official 2020 minute projections for Marquette.

Minutes.JPG

Studs (30+) – Markus Howard, Sacar Anim

No words need to be spent on Markus. He will get over 30 minutes every game, barring injury.

Same for Sacar. We were early on the “Anim will be 3rd in minutes” train last year, when a good number of people had his role decreasing.

He simply does too much on the court. As a 5th year senior, with a 3-point shot that morphed from ok to lethal last season and the size and strength to guard 1 through 4, I see him spending more time guarding wings than guards. But in any case, he will be tough to take off the court.

Key Contributors (20+) – Koby McEwen, Theo John

With Koby, I’m falling into the same trap I’ve fallen into over and over since Buzz’ days, thinking transfers will have a bigger impact sooner than history tells us is likely. In the last 10 years, transfers to Marquette have played 44% of minutes on average their first season, with only one player topping 70%, Matt Carlino on a terrible team in 2015.

Type Player % Min Y1 % Min Y2 % Min Y3
Grad Joseph Chartouny 37.2
Trad Ed Morrow 36.1
Trad Harry Froling 17.5
Grad Katin Reinhardt 58.3
Trad Andrew Rowsey 51.9 80.8
Trad Wally Ellenson 19
Grad Matt Carlino 71.6
Trad Luke Fischer 54.6 69.5 59.7
Trad Jake Thomas 14.5 72.5
Trad Jamil Wilson 58.6 62 70.2
Grad Trent Lockett 65.6

So of course I have Koby projected at 70% of possible minutes, which is actually down a few ticks from earlier this year. I don’t think this MU team will be terrible, but like on that 2015 team, there is a distinct lack of scorers. Koby won’t have to carry the offensive load like Carlino, hi Markus, but I do think he will be given the green light to attack and shoot on a high volume.

As for Theo, his defense should put him in the Stud minute load, but his foul issues seem to have not gotten any better. Offensively, he’ll get more touches this year with a more interior based system.

Main Rotation (15+) – Ed Morrow, Brendan Bailey, Greg Elliott

In the past 10 seasons, only 3 Marquette teams have had 4 or fewer players average at least 20 minutes per game. So while it is definitely not likely, I do think this will be a case where the rotation is pretty set at certain spots, limiting the minutes distribution.

Recent history tells us the 2nd year is when traditional transfers start to shine, but I just have a very tough time seeing Ed playing 20+ minutes this season with Jayce and Theo both being strict 5s. He will see most of his time at the 4, but I still hesitate to pencil him in for over half the game when he hasn’t shown the ability to shoot beyond 4 or 5 feet.

Brendan Bailey saw more minutes than I envisioned last year, and will have some opportunities to show his versatility between guard and wing positions, I just don’t have enough confidence to say he will be the main 4 just yet.

Greg Elliott is still not 100% back, so his minutes may be limited during the non-con portion of the schedule, but when it’s all said and done, I do think he has the components to be a lockdown defender and a plus shooter this season.

Back End Rotation (10+) – Jayce Johnson, Jamal Cain, Symir Torrence

Jayce is going to miss at least the first week of the season due to a leg injury, a seemingly common occurrence for him in his career. Wojo has said the injury is week to week, but any time a big misses significant minutes early on, it makes me leery of assuming they will be at full health any time soon (see Matt Heldt last year). So I’ve dropped my projection a bit for him to around 13 minutes a game, which seems low for someone who would have been a starter if he stayed put at Utah, but we shall see how the season unfolds.

The opportunity to be a prime 3 and D player is there for Jamal, if he’s ready to grab it, but like Bailey, I don’t think he’s shown enough to warrant that confidence from this prediction. I actually think it’s more likely he sees a similar role as last year, and doesn’t crack the 10-minute mark per game.

Symir is like the inverse of Jamal. The guard position is quite full, and there’s not a specific need for ball handling at the moment, but every clip and scrimmage video shows how fluid his passing game is.

I don’t think it translates to a starting or prime role just yet, but he will be a mainstay of the rotation by conference play.

Spot Player (0-10) – Dexter Akanno

Dex has not been paired with whiteboard redshirt rumors, so I don’t think he’ll redshirt, but he looks to me to be very similar to Sacar in his trajectory. Defensive upside is there, but the offense just not there. Using a year to hone his shooting and ball handling makes too much sense, particularly with 3 players at his possible positions locked in for 30+ minutes.

Advertisements

Tags: , , , , , ,

Categories: Analysis, Home, Previews

Subscribe

Subscribe to our RSS feed and social profiles to receive updates.

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s