Although it’s more telling of my shortcomings than anything, when I hear a white 6’5″ wing from Wisconsin that played two years at St. Thomas, I think of a player archetype that couldn’t be further from what Nolan Minessale, Marquette’s newest addition, actually is.
He’s not a good shooter. He’s not a below the rim player. He isn’t cerebral. When I watched a few of Minessale’s games and dug into his stats, basically all the cliches we’ve come to expect get thrown the window. He’s a high flying, quick twitch defender who is incredible at getting to the rim, but not a sniper by any stretch.
But just because he doesn’t fit the preconceived mold of players that fit his description does not mean I don’t like the signing for Marquette. In fact it’s the opposite, I love it.
Impact Stats
I won’t lie and say I was a big connoisseur of Summit League action this year, so I had to dive straight to the impact metrics to start forming an informed opinion.
On Evan Miya’s site, Minessale graded out with a BPR of 4.97, which led not only St. Thomas but also the league as a whole. He boasted the 3rd best OBPR and the 2nd best DBPR, which tells us he’s not a 1-dimensional player by any means.
In his rankings, Miya projects Minessale as the 71st ranked transfer, with a BPR of 4.45 for the 2027 season.
Hopping over to Hoop-Explorer, he put up and RAPM of +3.7, which was 2nd best in the Summit League and tops on St. Thomas. And then looking at his multi-year growth, you can see that while his individual offensive efficiency went down from his freshman season (with a huge jump in usage), his impact more than doubled.
Both models have him pegged as a player that not only puts up stats with his high usage, but has a positive influence on both sides of the floor.
Playing Style
Minessale wants to get to the rim early and often. He’s a downhill attacker with a decent handle and a pretty package near the basket. He took 51% of his shots at the rim, per Synergy, and did so with incredible efficiency at his volume. Of the 127 D1 players that took 200+ shots at the rim, Minessale ranked 18th with a 1.391 PPP. He can score in multiple ways near the tin, and is also adept at drawing fouls, posting a free throw rate of 50.2% where he shot 74.9% at the line.
And the way he gets to the rim fits exactly what Marquette needs. He’s a creator off the dribble, whether it comes via a P&R an Iso or a drive from a kickout. Here’s how the plays broke out in Synergy.
And if you follow basketball analytics closely, you probably associate spot up shooting with long range shots. I use those 2 phrases interchangeably all the time. But in Synergy, Spot Up play types contain not just jumpers, but also the drives from kickouts. So that 1.029 PPP that grades out as “Very Good” needs more context.
Only 54% of his spot up shots came via jumpers, with 46% coming from drives. That’s a very unique mix. Look at the breakdown for these 3 Marquette players last year.
Adrien Stevens: 70.3%
Ben Gold: 77.5%
Damarius Owens: 69.6%
One of the only players to match Minessale’s jumper distribution on spot up possessions was Chase Ross (46.3%). And the more I look at Chase the more I see that Minessale will be jumping in directly into that role as 2nd creator. Look at this visual from Hoop-Explorer categorizing Nolan and Chase’s play types last season. They have an almost identical distribution, with those 7-foot-floaters and fadeaways Chase liked to take and are classified as midrange being one of the only differences.
Again, whether it’s a rim attack, in transition or off a cut, Minessale wants to get into the paint and can do it on his own. Only 31% of Minessale’s shots at the rim were assisted, which tells us he can create for himself, something that was absent in 2026.
Can he handle?
Looking specifically to his P&R ability, Minessale grades out as excellent for his P&R + Passing possessions. That’s a huge element Marquette did not have outside of Nigel last season.
And going back to the Chase comparison while the playing styles are eerily similar, the results were not. Minessale (against much lesser competition) was incredibly efficient on high volume. He had PPP’s in the top quartile of D1 for 5 separate categories (Rim Attack, Attack & Kick, Hits Cutter, Perimeter Cut, P&R Passer). If a few of those sound like passing plays that’s because they are. His assist rate of 25.9% was probably one of the reasons his “role classification” changed from “Wing Guard” to “Scoring Point Guard” at Bart Torvik’s site.
Marquette needed a 2nd creator behind Nigel, and Nolan Minessale is exactly what the doctor orderd.
Dunks
Oh yeah, did I mention that he can fly?
I honestly was baffled when I started watching his rim finishes on Synergy and was even compelled to cut a dunk montage. Sure, it’s easy to dunk in transition like a few of those, but he wasn’t grazing just above the rim. He throws down.
Defense
And while P&Rs and dunks are well and good, one of the other aspects that most impressed me compared to some other players in his mold was the defense. I know it is difficult to quantify individual defense at any level, let alone when you have to jump up a level from Summit League to the Big East, so take all of this with a grain of salt. But I think he’ll be a positive on that end as well.
Against top-200 opponents, St. Thomas was 3.9 points/100 poss worse when Minessale went to the bench. On/Off stats are not everything, but they do give you a glimpse into how a player impacted their team.
He’s not a great rebounder (just 13.8% DReb last season) but he uses his long arms extremely well on defense as a disruptor. He had a block rate of 5% (top-200 nationally) as a freshman and a steal rate of 3.1% last season, again a top-200 mark in D1. He will fit right into Shaka’s disruptive deflection-based scheme.
Can he stay in front of Big East point guards on switches? I don’t know. He won’t be a Chase Ross level defender, but again, he’s plenty athletic and has the tools to at minimum hold his own.
Going up a level
The biggest question left is how do his stats translate going up to the high major level? It’s one thing to finish inside against Omaha, it’s quite another to do so against Creighton. It’s a legitimate question and one that has plagued plenty of up-transfers throughout the years.
Where I think I’m optimistic is the role he’s being brought in to play. He isn’t coming to get 30+ minutes and run the offense on high usage. That’s where the talent and athleticism gap going up a level really shows up. This will still be Nigel’s team. Minessale will have plenty of opportunities to initiate and create, but not at quite the same rate as he’s had to.
Last season, Nolan posted a usage of 31.6% which was 21st most in the country. That’s crazy high, even above Nigel’s 30.3%. And as I wrote about multiple times, elevated usage usually comes with an efficiency penalty. Of the 32 D1 players that played at least 70% of minutes last season and had a usage over 30%, Minessale posted the 7th best ORtg at 114.2. Only 10 finished above 110.
And so theoretically, with a lesser load and fewer difficult shots/passes, you could see Minessale’s offensive efficiency remain around where he’s at through a mix of better shot selection and lower volume.
Can he shoot?
The biggest concern with Minessale is he’s been a poor 3-point shooter his whole college career. He only shot 30% from 3 last season on 140 attempts. When you dive in a bit, his Synergy catch and shoot numbers (of which he should have many good looks) are a tad better at 31.5% on 108 attempts.
The weird part here is that he was much worse on unguarded attempts (25.6%) than guarded (35.4%). I think that’s a smaller sample fluke more than anything, but just illustrates that simply saying he’ll get better looks as the recipient of Nigel kickouts isn’t going to make him a better shooter.
What I do think is that his ability to score inside at very efficient levels will help lessen any potential negative impact from sub-par shooting. He doesn’t have to be a sniper, and simply getting to be an average 33% or so (a bit below his freshman year average) will make him an extremely valuable weapon.
Grade
So what’s the verdict? I’m giddy.
Marquette had a round hole in needing a secondary creator and picked up a round peg. I’ve laid out all of the caveats and potential pitfalls, but at the end of the day, Minessale’s impact metrics tell us he’s a multi-dimensional positive impact type of player.
I can see him slotting into Chase’s starting role right off the bat or coming in as a 6th man type, but I think he’ll end up playing 21 to 25ish minutes per game regardless. He isn’t a pure PG, but will help bridge the minutes Nigel sits, as well as helping to take some responsibility off of Nigel when sharing the floor.
Overall I’d grade the pickup an A-, with the slight deduction for shooting concerns. But it’s still a tremendous move that can pay off not only this season but the next, as he will have 2 years of eligibility. Hats off to Shaka and the staff for their portal work.
And in case you think I’m a blind homer, here are some external scouting reports that have helped inform my opinion.
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