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2019 TSW Viewing Guide

Admit it. There was a small part of you that was sad that you couldn’t look forward to the Team Bubble Watch Viewing Guide this season. Don’t worry, Paint Touches has you covered with the Team Seed Watch Viewing Guide. Not quite as much drama as TBW but still chock full of all the viewing guide goodness. Paint Touches will be regularly updating this viewing guide to let Marquette fans know which games could impact their quest for a 2 seed, and which teams to send prayers for and against. Just to make it easy, the team Marquette would want to win is in green. The team that is evil and must be destroyed is in red.

Wednesday, March 6th

Marquette at Seton Hall
5:30 PM CT
FS1
Line: MARQ -2.0
Why?: This is a big one. Win here and Marquette definitely hops over Kansas on the S-Curve. They may even pass Purdue and get back to a 3-seed. A loss shouldn’t mean losing the 4-seed but it will get them a lot closer to losing that protected seed.

LSU at Florida
6:00 PM CT
ESPN2
Line: FLA -1.0
Why?: LSU was in the “other teams considered” during the bracket reveal in early February. Since then they have picked up some huge wins against Tennessee and at Kentucky but they also dropped a home game to the Florida Gators. Florida completing the sweep of LSU, combined with a Marquette win, should put them practically dead even on the s-curve.

St. Bonaventure at Davidson
6:00 PM CT
Regional TV
Line: DAV -5.0
Why?: This one is a bit of stretch. 5 (potentially 6) of Marquette’s wins are currently ranked between #70 and #78 in the NET. Davidson sits in the middle of them at #71. Davidson dropping in NET could help make sure that as many of those wins as possible end up at #75 or higher, making them Q1/Q2 wins instead of Q2/Q3 wins.

Iowa State at West Virginia
6:00 PM CT
ESPNU
Line: ISU -7.0
Why?: It’s really hard to imagine 9-loss Iowa State ever passing Marquette but just in case.

La Salle at Dayton
6:00 PM CT
ESPN+
Line: DAY -11.5
Why?: Same as the Davidson game above. 5 (potentially 6) of Marquette’s wins are currently ranked between #70 and #78 in the NET. Dayton sits in the middle of them at #74. Dayton dropping in NET could help make sure that as many of those wins as possible end up at #75 or higher, making them Q1/Q2 wins instead of Q2/Q3 wins.

Southern Miss at Old Dominion
6:00 PM CT
ESPN+
Line: ODU -6.0
Why?: Same as the Davidson and Dayton games above. 5 (potentially 6) of Marquette’s wins are currently ranked between #70 and #78 in the NET. Old Dominion sits in the middle of them at #76. Old Dominion  dropping in NET could help make sure that as many of those wins as possible end up at #75 or higher, making them Q1/Q2 wins instead of Q2/Q3 wins.

Providence at Creighton
7:00 PM CT
CBSSN
Line: CREI -5.0
Why?: Providence sits at #78 in the NET. A surprise win here could boost them into the top 75, making Marquette’s wins against them Q1/Q2 instead of Q2/Q3.

Georgetown at DePaul
7:30 PM CT
FS1
Line: DEP -1.5
Why?: Georgetown sits at #72 in the NET. A win here helps keep them above the #75 cutoff, meaning Maquette’s road win will stay Q1 and their potential home win/loss will stay Q2.

Arkansas at Vanderbilt
7:30 PM CT
SECN
Line: ARK -1.5
Why?: Same as the Davidson, Dayton, and Old Dominion games above. 5 (potentially 6) of Marquette’s wins are currently ranked between #70 and #78 in the NET. Arkansas sits in the middle of them at #73. Arkansas  dropping in NET could help make sure that as many of those wins as possible end up at #75 or higher, making them Q1/Q2 wins instead of Q2/Q3 wins.

Middle Tennessee State at UTEP
8:00 PM CT
Regional TV
Line:
 UTEP -2.0
Why?:
 NET Bump

Tuesday, March 5th (7-3)

Xavier at Butler
5:00 PM CT
FS1
Line: BUT -3.5
Why?: Xavier currently sits at #70 in the NET. A win here helps keep them as a Q1/Q2 win instead of a Q2/Q3 win.
Xavier loses 71-66

Virginia Tech at Florida State
6:00 PM CT
ESPNU
Line: FSU -4.5
Why?: Both of these teams are likely right behind Marquette on the s-curve. It’s possible that either one winning will result in them moving ahead of Marquette. Florida State is the lesser of two evils because an expected home win against Virginia Tech will move them a lot less than an unexpected road win by Virginia Tech.
Florida State wins 73-64 (OT)

Buffalo at Ohio
6:00 PM CT
ESPN+
Line: BUF -12.0
Why?: NET Bump. Plus, Buffalo is currently #15 in the NET, the exact cutoff for a home Q1A win.
Buffalo wins 82-79

USC Upstate at Charleston Southern
6:00 PM CT
ESPN3
Line: CHSO -14.0
Why?: This is the first round of the Big South tournament. A win gives Marquette a small NET bump and could mean a win against an extra tournament team on the resume if they win it all
Charleston Southern wins 71-52

UNC Asheville at Presbyterian
6:00 PM CT
ESPN3
Line: PRES -16.0
Why?: This is the first round of the Big South tournament. A win gives Marquette a small NET bump and could mean a win against an extra tournament team on the resume if they win it all.
Presbyterian wins 106-59

Purdue at Minnesota
7:00 PM CT
BTN
Line: PUR -5.0
Why?: Purdue likely is still sitting on the 3-seed line. Marquette will need some of those teams to lose if they want to get back into that territory. This is Purdue’s best chance for a loss before the  Big 10 tournament.
Minnesota wins 73-69

Mississippi State at Tennessee
8:00 PM CT
SECN
Line: TENN -8.0
Why?: Had Marquette beaten Creighton, we would have been hoping for the opposite result. At this point, catching Tennessee is likely impossible so instead keeping Mississippi State at bay is the priority. They are likely pretty far behind Marquette at this point, but a road win at #5 Tennessee is exactly the kind of thing that could launch them forward.
Tennessee wins 71-54

Auburn at Alabama
8:00 PM CT
ESPNU
Line: AUB -2.5
Why?: This one is on the less important side. Auburn is a few spots ahead of Marquette in NET rankings. Marquette can move up by winning or by the teams in front of them losing.
Alabama loses 66-60

Kansas at Oklahoma
8:00 PM CT
ESPN2
Line:
KU -1.0
Why?:
Kansas is either the last 3 seed or top 4 seed. Either way, a loss opens the door for Marquette to pass the Jayhawks.
Oklahoma wins 81-68

Nevada at Air Force
10:00 PM CT
ESPN2
Line: NEV -13.5
Why?: We don’t know exactly how far Nevada has fallen after picking up two losses since the bracket reveal. Bracket matrix has them hanging around the 6-seed line. A loss here would put them permanently behind Marquette.
Air Force loses 90-79

Monday, March 4th (0-2)

Texas at Texas Tech
8:00 PM CT
ESPN
Line: TTU -8.5
Why?: Texas Tech is definitely above Marquette on the s-curve, likely by 3 or 4 spots. A surprise home loss to Texas could help Marquette retake their lead on the Red Raiders.
Texas loses 70-51

Kansas State at TCU
8:00 PM CT
ESPN2
Line: KSU -2.0
Why?: If Marquette had won yesterday, I would have been vouching for K-State to win to help improve Marquette’s resume. But now Marquette is definitely on the 4-seed line, possibly the 5 and K-State can’t be too far behind.
TCU loses 64-52

Sunday, March 3rd (1-2)

Notre Dame at Louisville
12:30 PM CT
CBS
Line: LOU -9.0
Why?: With 11 losses, Louisville has played themselves out of being a threat to Marquette’s seeding. Currently rated #25 in NET, the Cardinals are at the exact cutoff between a Q1A and Q1B victory. Plus, ND sucks.
Louisville wins 75-61

Creighton at Marquette
2:00 PM CT
FS1
Line: MARQ -7.5
Why?: Obviously the most important game being played tomorrow for Marquette’s tournament chances. The Golden Eagles prevailed in overtime on the road and are heavily favored at the Fiserv.
Marquette loses 66-60

Michigan at Maryland
2:45 PM CT
CBS
Line: MICH -1.0
Why?: Maryland is lurking in 6-seed territory but if Marquette takes care of business in their games, the Terrapins won’t be able to catch them. Michigan is likely the most precarious 2-seed at the moment so a loss could knock them into the ranks of the 3-seeds. The Wolverines losing could be Marquette’s best opportunity to sneak into a 2-seed.
Maryland loses 69-62

Saturday, March 2nd (12-13)

Michigan State at Indiana
11:00 AM CT
FOX
Line: MSU -6.0
Why?: This is a double whammy for Marquette. Michigan State is likely a 2-seed at this point and will need to lose some games in order for Marquette to pass them. An Indiana would also improve Marquette’s NET and make their loss look better.
Indiana wins 63-62

LSU at Alabama
11:00 AM CT
ESPN
Line: LSU -1.5
Why?: LSU was one of the “other teams considered” during the committee’s bracket reveal and since then has won some big games (and lost a bad one to Florida). If they haven’t passed Marquette on the committee’s s-curve they are probably on their heels.
Alabama loses 74-69

Kansas at Oklahoma St.
11:00 AM CT
CBS
Line: KU -7.0
Why?: Kansas is most likely still on the 3-seed line despite losing by a bajillion to Texas Tech. A loss here would almost guarantee a drop to the 4-seed line. Don’t get too down about KU being 7 point favorites, they are only 2-7 on the road this year and need OT to get one of those two wins.
Oklahoma St. loses 72-67

North Carolina St. at Florida St.
11:00 AM CT
ESPN2
Line: FSU -7.5
Why?: Florida State wasn’t mentioned in the top 16 bracket reveal, but bracketmatrix.com puts them as a 4-seed now meaning that they are threat to catch and steal Marquette’s 3-seed.
North Carolina St. loses 78-73

Penn St. at Wisconsin
12:00 PM CT
BTN
Line: WIS -7.5
Why?: This is a tough one. On one hand, Wisconsin is theoretically in striking distance of Marquette. On the other hand, Wisconsin’s current NET is 16, putting them just outside the cutoff for being a Q1A victory for Marquette. As much as it makes me physically ill, I think the right move here is to cheer for Wisconsin. With 9 losses including one at the hands of Marquette, it’s hard to imagine them passing Marquette on the S-Curve, and an extra Q1A victory could solidify Marquette’s resume.
Wisconsin wins 61-57

New Hampshire at UMBC
12:00 PM CT
ESPN+
Line: UMBC -14.5
Why?: NET bump
UMBC wins 56-53

Pittsburgh at Virginia
1:00 PM CT
ACCN
Line: NEV -19.5
Why?: Virginia has not lost to anyone other than Duke all season. They are not going to start now. But theoretically they could lose out the regular season so that Marquette could have a chance to catch them.
Pittsburgh loses 73-49

Kentucky at Tennessee
1:00 PM CT
CBS
Line: TENN -2.5
Why?: Despite the better W/L record, Tennessee is a lot closer to Marquette on the s-curve than Kentucky. A loss here probably doesn’t drop them to a 3-seed, but it gets them closer
Kentcuky loses 71-52

Ohio St at Purdue
1:00 PM CT
ESPN
Line: PUR -12.0
Why?: Purdue and Marquette were both 3-seeds when the committee did their bracket reveal and have identical records since that point. An unexpected home loss to bubbly Ohio State would be huge for Marquette. Purdue has won four in a row but looked really shaky against Indiana and Nebraska, beating both by a single possession.
Ohio State loses 86-51

Wofford at Samford
1:00 PM CT
ESPN3
Line: WOF -9.0
Why?: We don’t know a lot about how the NET is calculated, but we do know that teams who lose to Samford will drop. Wofford is three spots ahead of Marquette in the NET and them losing would bump Marquette’s NET ranking up by 1.
Samford loses 85-64

Butler at Villanova
1:00 PM CT
FOX
Line: NOVA -7.5
Why?: The purpose of this guide is to help Marquette’s chances of getting a higher seed, not secondary goals like getting more Big East teams to the tourney or helping Marquette clinch the BE crown. As such, a Villanova win is the better outcome because it should help make sure that Villanova’s NET doesn’t drop below 30, which would rob Marquette of a Q1 win. That being said, if there is a way they can lose by keep their NET above 30, that would be cool.
Villanova wins 75-54

Iowa State at Texas
1:00 PM CT
ESPN2
Line: ISU -1.0
Why?: The committee but Marquette as the last 3 seed and Iowa State as the top 4 seed in their bracket reveal. Since then the Cyclones have dropped three games, all to unranked teams. Losing a 4th one would be the equivalent of a seed stealer double tap.
Texas wins 86-69

Miami (FL) at Duke
3:00 PM CT
CBS
Line: Duke -16.0
Why?: Look, I’m not expecting a Zionless Duke to completely fall apart and blow all their remaining games….but it is possible. A loss to a sub-500 Canes squad would almost assuredly kick them off the 1-seed line and into vulnerable territory.
Miami(FL) loses 87-57

UCF at Houston
3:00 PM CT
ESPN
Line: TTU -7.5
Why?: Houston has walked a delicate tight rope all season. They only have 1 loss but they play in such a poor conference that 1 more loss could send them spiraling down a seed line. If the Knights can play spoiler, it likely means Houston falls below Marquette on the s-curve.
UCF wins 69-64

Texas Tech at TCU
3:00 PM CT
ESPN2
Line: TTU -3.5
Why?: This is probably the biggest game all day for Marquette keeping its 3-seed. Every team mentioned in the bracket reveal that was behind Marquette has lost at least one game….except the Red Raiders. Texas Tech has won 6 in a row including a 29 point whooping against the Jayhawks. If anyone has passed Marquette on the s-curve, it’s Texas Tech. A loss to TCU would either stop their charge….or move the back behind Marquette if they have already passed them.
TCU loses 81-66

Mississippi State at Auburn
3:00 PM CT
ESPNU
Line: AUB -5.0
Why?: Neither team is likely to catch Marquette, but if one of them were to, it would be Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are also 1 spot ahead of Marquette in the NET, so a loss likely moves Marquette up in the rankings.
Auburn wins 80-75

South Carolina State at Bethune-Cookman
3:00 PM CT
No TV
Line: BC -9.0
Why?: NET Bump
Bethune-Cookman wins 98-95 in OT

North Dakota at South Dakota
3:30 PM CT
ESPN+
Line: SD -5.5
Why?: NET Bump
North Dakota loses 78-63

North Carolina at Clemson
5:00 PM CT
ESPN
Line: UNC -4.0
Why?: Marquette catching North Carolina is pretty unlikely at this point….but it is more likely than Clemson catching Marquette so go Tigers!
Clemson loses 81-79

Seton Hall at Georgetown
5:30 PM CT
CBSSN
Line: GTWN -2.0
Why?: Georgetown currently sits at #72 in the NET rankings. That 3 spot gap between them and #75 is the difference between Marquette having an extra Q1 win or an extra Q3 win (or loss if the unthinkable happens on Senior Night).
Georgetown wins 77-71

Alcorn State at Southern
5:30 PM CT
No TV
Line: SOU -6.0
Why?: NET Bump
Southern wins 61-46

Baylor at Kansas State
7:00 PM CT
ESPN2
Line: KSU -6.5
Why?: Hard to imagine the Wildcats passing Marquette given the head to head win is owned by the Golden Eagles. A K-State win gives Marquette an NET bump and helps make sure that the Wildcats stay on the right side of #30 in the NET rankings, the cutoff for a Q1 home win.
Kansas State wins 66-60

Memphis at Cincinnati
7:00 PM CT
ESPNU
Line: UC -9.5
Why?: This one is a bit of a stretch, but Cincy is the team right behind Marquette in the NET rankings, keeps them from leapfrogging them and making Marquette’s NET look worse.
Memphis loses 71-69

Nevada at Utah St.
7:30 PM CT
CBSSN
Line: NEV -1.5
Why?: Bracketmatrix has dropped Nevada all the way to a 6-seed but no one knows exactly how the committee will judge Nevada’s resume. What we do know is that this game is Nevada’s only chance of the regular season to get a Q1 win. They literally have 0 Q1 wins or losses on their resume as of this writing.
Utah St. wins 81-76

Gonzaga at St. Mary’s
9:00 PM CT
ESPN
Line: GONZ -9.5
Why?: Okay…we know Gonzaga isn’t suddenly going to forget how to play basketball and lose out the regular season when they play in conference full of scrubs. But it is theoretically possible…and this is the closest thing to a fair conference game that you will see Gonzaga play all season. Plus we didn’t have any games for the late night slot, so treat yourself to a Bulldog beatdown at the end of a long day of viewing.
St. Mary’s loses 69-55

 

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Categories: Analysis

Author:Ryan Jackson

Texas A&M Professional, Marquette Fantatic

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