Bid probabilities for all bubble teams


(Photo by Ryan Messier/Paint Touches)

I mapped out what Marquette had to do to get a bid and we are breaking down who you need to root for on a daily basis, but there’s so many teams on this year’s bubble, that even with the guides it can get a bit challenging to keep it all together. 

So with the help of TRank’s Teamcast tool, I’m going to put a little guide together to how certain results would affect the teams on the bubble. (For the purposes of this analysis, we’re using TRank’s projected ranketology and using the last 8 in and the first 8 out to determine who qualifies for the bubble.) 

Here’s where we’re at before any game finalizes on Saturday:

Team Current % Current spot
Creighton 81.6% L4 Bye
Missouri 78.6% L4 Bye
FSU 77.8% L4 Bye
NC St. 73.2% L4 Bye
Texas 71.1% L4 In
St. Mary’s 69.2% L4 In
KSU 69.0% L4 In
Louisville 67.5% L4 In
Syracuse 60.8% Out 1
Marq 45.6% Out 2
MTSU 43.5% Out 3
Nebraska 25.8% Out 4
ASU 24.2% Out 5
ND 24.1% Out 6
Boise 23.7% Out 7
Ok St.  21.4% Out 8

For some clarification, the percentages represent the TRank estimated chances of receiving an at large bid. Teams are still liable to move around depending on other results. 

Nervous with Loss

None of the bubble teams left in TRank’s bubble have any games left, so they will all be nervous come Sunday. Unfortunately for Marquette, there is a rather large gap between them and Louisville, the last team projected in the field. So it’s now just a matter of what the committee decides is important.    




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