Some pretty big changes for the first time in a few weeks, as we get the last few days of January out of the way. As always, this chart and all stats come from TRank.
Here is what the map looks like on the morning of 1/29/2018:
Tier 1 – Villanova
Nova lost Phil Booth until at least the Big East Tournament. That won’t knock them from the top spot, but leaves them very, very thin. Brunson and Bridges will have to up their usage, so I do expect some of Nova’s advanced metrics to fall.
Tier 2 – Xavier, Creighton, Butler, Seton Hall
Xavier took it to Marquette last week in its only game. After a tough start to the New Year, they seem to be rolling once more. With games against St. John’s and Georgetown this week, they may once again approach Tier 1. Hall, Butler and Creighton played the dregs, but all have big tests upcoming. All 4 bids still seem pretty secure.
Tier 3 – Marquette, Providence
The box score says Providence lost by 20, but the TRank +/- was -4.5, which was actually better than Marquette’s 3 point loss to Nova (-4.9). I still think Providence makes a lot of noise before the end of the season. The matchup of Tier 3 teams this weekend is giant for both. Both are still on the positive side of the bubble.
Tier 4 – St. John’s, DePaul, Georgetown
You did it. Congratulations! It was a long time coming but the Johnnies finally cracked the bottom tier. I was never high on them to begin with, but seeing them go 0-10 was never a remote possibility. They’ve already played Georgetown twice and DePaul once. They should not go winless, but they will be underdogs in every single game. All 3 are BET champs or bust.
Marquette’s schedule was heavily front-loaded and there are still 5 games against Tier 4 teams. So, theoretically, that bodes well if they take care of business. That’s a big if. For now, taking at least one at home against Providence and Butler looms large. For now, Marquette is in full control of it’s destiny.
Paint Touches 
Leave a comment