WAY Too Early Bracketology

Photo by Anthony Giacomino/ Paint Touches

Last summer Paint Touches did a WAY too early Bracketology as a fun project during the summer. It was moderately successful, accurately picking 26 out of 36 at large bids, 10 out of 11 automatic qualifiers from major conferences (AAC, ACC, A10, B1G, B12, BE, MVC, MWC, P12, SEC, and WCC), and 4 out of 21 automatic qualifiers from minor conferences. It should be noted that 2 out of the 10 at large misses were Louisville and SMU who were both unexpectedly put on postseason bans after this was posted.

It’s a year later and the summer is just as dull as it ever is. The excitement of Kris Jenkins’ buzzer beater has all but faded. The class of 2016 is almost completely committed and heading to campuses across the country. Even the stampede of transfers is starting to slow to a crawl. A little look ahead at this upcoming season should be a welcome distraction. Besides, it’s never too early for some bracketology, right?

To create this bracketology, a formula was used that looked at KenPom rankings, conference ranking, percentage lost of major categories (points, rebounds, steals, blocks, 3PM), assigned value to incoming players (including freshmen, Jucos, transfers, graduate transfers, players coming off a redshirt, and players returning from injury suffered during the 14-15 season). This formula gave all 351 teams a score that was used to put each team on an s-curve. Teams were then plugged into the bracket and then adjusted to fit as many of the unofficial tournament committee rules as possible.

Important disclaimer! A lot of this is very basic statistics. There are much more accurate advanced stats out there. If you want to pay me or give me an intern who works for free, I would be happy to use them. This is meant to be a fun project to pass the time that gives fans a rough prediction of their team’s prospects going into season.

So, without further ado:

SOUTH:
1: DUKE
16: WINTHROP
8: Ucla
9: Georgetown
5: Kentucky
12: UNC WILMINGTON
4: West Virginia
13: UT ARLINGTON
6: VCU
11: Smu
3: Louisville
14: UAB
7: Pittsburgh
10: Vanderbilt
2: KANSAS
15: FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAST:
1: VILLANOVA
16: JACKSON STATE/BOSTON UNIVERSITY
8: Baylor
9: Michigan
5: Virginia Tech
12: Rhode Island/Usc
4: Creighton
13: MONMOUTH
6: CINCINNATI
11: Ohio State
3: FLORIDA
14: AKRON
7: Texas Tech
10: Colorado
2: North Carolina
15: VERMONT

WEST:
1: OREGON
16: HOWARD/SAM HOUSTON STATE
8: Michigan State
9: Butler
5: SAN DIEGO STATE
12: Marquette/Kansas State
4: Gonzaga
13: NEW MEXICO STATE
6: Iowa State
11: Dayton
3: SAINT MARY’S
14: LONG BEACH STATE
7: Arizona
10: Notre Dame
2: Xavier
15: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

MIDWEST:
1: WISCONSIN
16: WAGNER
8: Florida State
9: PRINCETON
5: Seton Hall
12: VALPARAISO
4: Purdue
13: CHATTANOOGA
6: Clemson
11: California
3: Indiana
14: WEBER STATE
7: WICHITA STATE
10: Connecticut
2: Virginia
15: BELMONT

LAST FOUR BYES:
SMU
California
Ohio State
Dayton

LAST FOUR IN:
Marquette
Rhode Island
Kansas State
USC

FIRST FOUR OUT:
North Carolina State
Miami (FL)
BYU
Maryland

NEXT FOUR OUT:
Texas A&M
Syracuse
Georgia
Texas

IN THE HUNT:
Houston
Arkansas-Little Rock
Arkansas
Northwestern
Oklahoma
Arizona State
St. Bonaventure
Iowa
Stanford
Richmond
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Davidson

Conference Breakdown:
ACC: 9
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC 12: 6
Big 10: 6
SEC: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 2
Mountain West: 1
Missouri Valley: 1
Ivy: 1

Quick Analysis:

You might remember announcers mentioning repeatedly during the last march madness that all the star players for the best teams were upperclassmen. They weren’t wrong. High major teams as a group are losing a ton of production to graduation. The national average for production lost this offseason is ~42%. The average production lost for every single high major conference fell about that line…save one, the Big East. So while high majors are losing a ton, mid and low majors are hanging onto their stars and should improve going into next season. Next season could be one filled with parity and lot of high major squads being upset in the non-conference by overreaching buy opponents.

A downfall of this scoring system is that it doesn’t account for difficulty of conference schedules. It would be quite a feat for the Big East to get 70% of its teams into the dance (though the B12 did it just this past year). It is more likely the Big East will cannibalize itself and end up keeping one of their members out of the tournament. But make no mistake, there are 7 NCAA tournament caliber teams in the Big East. On average Big East teams lose 36% of their production which is significantly lower than the national average of 42% and much lower than their fellow high majors. In addition to returning star power, they also have a more impressive class of incoming transfers than any other conference.

The ACC will be even more of a battleground than it usually is. Top performers from last season such as Duke, Virginia, Louisville, and Miami lose a ton of star power though they replace them with strong freshman classes. The teams from the middle of the conference like Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Pittsburgh return most of their rosters while also bringing an impressive group of transfers and redshirts. There are 12 teams in the ACC with legitimate tournament aspirations, not to mention three of the best teams in the country in Duke, UNC, and Virginia.

It could be a rough season for Marquette fans next season. While Wojo’s crew will be kicking, clawing, and scratching for an NCAA berth, fans of some of their greatest rivals will likely be enjoying some dominate seasons. Notre Dame should continue their NCAA tournament streak. Former coaches Tom Crean and Buzz Williams look like they have top 25 programs. And worst of all, the Badgers are primed to make another run at the Final Four. While this may bother some, I think most Marquette fans would agree that if the Golden Eagles finally make it back into the NCAA, then all will be forgiven.