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“Redrafting” the 2013 Top 100

Marquette’s class of 2013 was the recruiting crown jewel for then Coach Buzz Williams. He had brought in talent before, but 2013 promised to be the best class of his tenure. The class featured 5 players, 3 in the top 100, 1 JUCO All-American, and 3 star PG out of New Mexico who was considered by many to be an under-recruited gem. Together these young men formed a recruiting class that was ranked 10th in the nation by 247 Sports. That’s not even including Luke Fischer, another top 100 freshmen who would join the 2013 class after transferring from Indiana.

With a top 10 class coming in and a solid returning corps that included Vander Blue, Jamil Wilson, and Davante Gardner, Marquette fans thought 2013-2014 would be the year. Then, Blue went pro, Mayo put himself in the doghouse, McKay transferred before playing a game, Duane fractured his leg, Jamil lost his fire, and opponents figured out that Derrick Wilson didn’t require a defender outside of the paint. This culminated in a lackluster 17-15 record and a Buzz Williams departure.

Despite the poor performance of the past season and the defections that came as a result of Buzz Williams embracing his country roots, Marquette fans still had reason to be hopeful, mostly because of the 2013 class. Unfortunately, even though all of them (besides Dawson) received more playing time, the class has under performed to many fans’ expectations. This begged the question, were fans expectations too high or were some players overranked coming out of high school?

This led to a fun bit of research. I decided to take the top 100 players from the class of 2013 (per 247 Sports) and redraft them based on their performance thus far.

Some caveats:

1. This only a reranking of the players who cracked the top 100. Players outside of the top 100 were not considered for this exercise.

2. There are 3 players from the 2013 top 100 who have yet to play a minute of D1 basketball.  They are: Brandon Austin (Providence, off the court issues), Nick Emery (BYU, Mormon mission), and Anthony January (New Mexico State, went JUCO route). With no data to go on, they have been automatically regulated to the last three spots.

3. The data I based this on is about two weeks old. So if anyone went on a tear or a slump in the last 4 or 5 games, it won’t be reflected.

4. This is crucial. I am just some guy on the internet giving opinions on my limited data analysis capabilities.

First, I found that the average 14-15 stat line of a player who was in the 2013 top 100 is: 22.4 minutes per game, 8.6 points per game, 3.9 rebounds per game, 1.6 assists per game, 1.2 steals per game, 0.7 blocks per game, 1.5 turnovers per game, and .200 3P%. Let’s compare that to the stat lines of Marquette’s members of the top 100:

#32: Jajuan Johnson: 21.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.5 bpg, 1.9 tpg, .175 3P
#50 Deonte Burton 16.1 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 0.3 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.4 bpg, 1.4 tpg, .400 3P
#59: Duane Wilson: 27.5 mpg, 11.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.3 bpg, 1.6 tpg, .290 3P
#88: Luke Fischer: 27.4 mpg, 10.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.8 bpg,  1.9 tpg, .000 3P

Oddly enough, the two lower ranked members of Marquette’s 2013 class fall above the average and the two higher ranked members end up below the average. But Johnson is in the ballpark of average and Burton is not too far behind. This was reflected in their final destination in the 2013 redraft.

So without further ado:

2013 Top 100 Redraft

1. Jabari Parker, Duke (NBA)
2. Julius Randle, Kentucky (NBA)
3. Andrew Wiggins, Kansas (NBA)
4. Bobby Portis, Arkansas
5. Joel Embiid, Kansas (NBA)
6. Aaron Gordon, Arizona (NBA)
7. Tyler Ennis, Syracuse (NBA)
8. James Young, Kentucky (NBA)
9. Noah Vonleh, Indiana (NBA)
10. Terry Rozier, Louisville
11. Jarell Martin, LSU
12. Zach LaVine, UCLA (NBA)
13. Jordan Mickey, LSU
14. Nigel Williams-Goss, Washington
15. Austin Nichols, Memphis
16. Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame
17. Christian Wood, UNLV
18. Monte Morris, Iowa State
19. Aaron Harrison, Kentucky
20. Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina
21. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona
22. Kasey Hill, Florida
23. Isaac Hamilton, UCLA
24. Andrew Harrison, Kentucky
25. Tim Quarterman, LSU
26. Dakari Johnson, Kentucky
27. Troy Williams, Indiana
28. Malcolm Hill, Illnois
29. Devin Williams, West Virginia
30. Zak Irvin, Michigan
31. Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Florida State
32. Anthony Barber, North Carolina State
33. Wayne Selden, Kansas
34. Rysheed Jordan, Saint John’s
35. Michael Young, Pittsburgh
36. Derrick Walton, Michigan
37. Josh Hart, Villanova
38. Marc Loving, Ohio State
39. Eric Mika, BYU (on Mormon mission)
40. Damian Jones, Vanderbilt
41. Kendrick Nunn, Illinois
42. Billy Garrett, Depaul
43. Duane Wilson, Marquette
44. EC Matthews, Rhode Island
45. Johnathan Williams, Missouri
46. Keith Frazier, SMU
47. Jabari Bird, California
48. Sindharius Thornwell, South Carolina
49. John Egbunu, South Florida (transferring to Florida)
50. Tyler Roberson, Syracuse
51. Kendall Stephens, Purdue
52. Luke Fischer, Marquette
53. Kris Jenkins, Villanova
54. Kyle Washington, North Carolina State
55. Isaiah Hicks, North Carolina
56. Wesley Clark, Missouri
57. Shannon Hale, Alabama
58. Jajuan Johnson, Marquette
59. Nick King, Memphis
60. Kentan Facey, UConn
61. Beejay Anya, 61
62. Kaviar Shepherd
63. Marcus Lee, Kentucky
64. VJ Beachum, Notre Dame
65. Semi Ojeleye, Duke (transferring to SMU)
66. Chris Walker, Florida
67. Brannen Green, Kansas
68. Matt Jones, Duke
69. Jimmie Taylor, Alabama
70. Kameron Williams, Ohio State
71. Mamadou Ndiaye, UC Irvine
72. Stevie Clark, Oklahoma State (transferred to a JUCO)
73. Pookie Powell, Memphis
74. Deonte Burton, Marquette (transferring to Iowa State)
75. Demetrius Henry, South Carolina
76. Roddy Peters, Maryland (transferring to Maryland)
77. Robert Hubbs, Tennessee
78. Matt Thomas, Iowa State
79. Elijah Macon, West Virginia
80. Moses Kingsley, Arkansas
81. Elliot Pitts, Arizona
82. Allerik Freeman, Baylor
83. Bryson Scott, Purdue
84. BJ Johnson, Syracuse
85. Conner Frankamp, Kansas (transferring to Wichita State)
86. Tre’Shaun Fletcher, Colorado
87. Kuran Iverson, Memphis
88. Stanford Robinson, Indiana
89. Anton Gill, Louisville
90. Zena Edosomwan, Harvard
91. Mark Donnal, Michigan
92. Dakari Allen, Sand Diego State
93. Brandon Randolph, Xavier
94. Ishmail Wainright, Baylor
95. Dominic Woodson, Tennessee
96. Reggie Cameron, Georgetown
97. Jermaine Lawrence, Manhattan (transferred from Cincinnati)
98. Brandon Austin, Providence (off the court issues)
99. Nick Emery, BYU (Mormon mission)
100. Anthony January (JUCO)

For fun I created some “All 2013 Teams” to give people of visual of who the top gems and busts were from 2013:

2013 First Team All-Gem:

PG: Monte Morris, 6-2 170, Iowa State. Originally: #83 Rerank: #18, +/-: 65
SG: EC Matthews, 6-5 190, Rhode Island. Originally: #97 Rerank: #44, +/-: 53
SF: Tim Quarterman, 6-6 187, LSU. Originally: #72 Rerank: #25 +/-: 47
PF: Michael Young, 6-9 235, Pittsburgh. Originally: #79 Rerank: #35 +/-: 44
C: Damian Jones, 6-10 240, Vandebilt Originally: #87 Rerank: #40 +/-: 47

2013 2nd Team All-Gem:

PG: Billy Garrett Jr, 6-6 205, Depaul. Originally: #85 Rerank: #42 +/-: 43
SG: Zach LaVine, 6-5 183, UCLA (now in NBA). Originally: #51 Rerank: 12 +/-: 39
SF: Josh Hart, 6-5 205, Villanova. Originally: #80 Rerank: #37 +/-: 43
PF: Malcolm Hill, 6-6 230, Illinois. Originally: #70 Rerank: #28 +/-: 42
C: Kennedy Meeks, 6-9 280, North Carolina. Originally: #58 Rerank: #20 +/-: 38

2013 1st Team All-Bust:
PG: Conner Frankamp, 6-9 205, Kansas (transferring to Wichita State). Originally: #43 Rerank: #85 +/-: -42
SG: Robert Hubbs III, 6-6 206, Tennessee. Originally: #19 Rerank: #77 +/-: -58
SF: Kuran Iverson, 6-9 205, Memphis. Originally: #36 Rerank: #87 +/-: 51
PF: Jermaine Lawrence, 6-9 205, Manhattan (started at Cincinnati). Originally: #25 Rerank: #97 +/-: -73
C: Chris Walker, Florida. Originally: #7 Rerank: #66 +/-: -59

2013 2nd Team All-Bust

PG: Anton Gill, 6-3 190, Louisville. Originally: #52 Rerank #89 +/-: -37
SG: Roddy Peters, 6-3 195, Maryland (transferring to South Florida). Originally: #41 Rerank: # 76 +/-: 35
SF: Isaiah Hicks, 6-8 220, North Carolina. Originally: #16 Rerank: #55 +/-: -39
PF: Semi Ojeleye, 6-8 230, Duke. Originally: #26 Rerank: #26 +/-: -39
C: Marcus Lee, 6-9 220, Kentucky. Originally: #18 Rerank: #63 +/-: -45

So for all the wondering if Johnson or Burton are busts, they don’t even make my list of top 10 busts from 2013. And while Duane and Luke have put up great numbers this year, they don’t make the list of top 10 gems (though Luke was next on the list). The truth is, Marquette has some top talent that was slightly overranked, and some lower talent that is overperforming. Given time this class can still blossom into what Marquette fans hoped it would be….except Deonte will be blossoming in Ames, IA.

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Author:Ryan Jackson

Texas A&M Professional, Marquette Fantatic

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