Scouting report on New Mexico’s fast paced offense

I watch a lot of college basketball. Too much, some would argue. So it came as a big shock to me that when New Mexico popped up as Marquette’s first round opponent in the NCAA Tournament, I knew absolutely nothing about them.

Which means you can hop along as we all learns lots about Lobos.

New Mexico On Offense

Some basics from KenPom. New Mexico ranks 79th in adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 112.5 points per 100 possessions. For reference, Providence finished the season at 112.18 and 85th in the country. The Lobos on first glance don’t pose a potent offense compared to what Marquette has seen.

Transition

However, where New Mexico differs greatly is how they play. Richard Pitino’s squad plays at the fastest pace of any team Marquette will have faced this season. Unlike a good number of mid-majors, they aren’t afraid to get into a track meet, and a back and forth affair plays right into their hands. It finished the regular season with the 4th fastest tempo in KemPom, averaging just 15.1 seconds per offensive possessions.

For reference, the only other sub-16 second team Marquette faced this season was St. John’s, and they were a 15.8. Now, New Mexico is nowhere near as good as the Johnnies, but as we saw this past week against both St. John’s and Xavier, Marquette can be prone to have lapses in transition defense, particularly when shots aren’t falling and teams can run off missed 3s.

But anecdotes aside, transition defense is an area of strength for Marquette. Using CBB Analytics, you can see Marquette ranks in the 90th percentile both for limiting transition opportunities (24.1% of possessions finishing within the first 10 seconds) and defending them (giving up only 1.08 points per possession).

Synergy tells us New Mexico ranks in the 87th percentile for transition offense efficiency, while Marquette ranks in the 90th percentile for transition defense. What that means is Marquette is pretty well suited to defend one of New Mexico’s only offensive areas of real strength.

One final note about the Lobos, their preferred method of attack is running to the rim in transition. You can see below how many possessions per game they average, via Hoop-Explorer. Stopping their running game is crucial.

Donovan Dent

Now as to the components that make up this high speed attack, it all starts with their star guard Donovan Dent, who was named the Mountain West Player of the Year. A 6’2″ junior you will probably hear it over and over that he’s the only player in the tournament to average 20 points and 5 assists a game. He’s very good, and quite efficient, with an ORtg of 114.7 on 28.6% usage.

Looking a bit into how he scores his points, he’s primarily looking to beat you up the floor. Per Synergy, 5.3 of his offensive possessions per game have come via transition, which is tied for the 2nd most in the country. And when he does get into 5th gear, he’s very efficient, scoring 1.274 PPP. In fact, that’s the 2nd best efficiency of any player in the country averaging 4 or more transition possessions a game.

The key for Marquette will be to prevent those runouts and force him into a half court game. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a very good player, but not nearly the elite threat he is with an open floor. Almost 3/4ths of of his possessions on offense come via transition or keeping it himself off a pick and roll, and you can see circled below the vast gulf between those efficiency numbers.

And in case you needed another visual, here are the Synergy shot charts for Dent this season. I didn’t even label them because it’s clear to see which is which. If you can force him into a half court game, his rim attacks become a lot more inefficient, and he settles for some pretty tough shots.

Dent is not simply a scorer, though, he’s tremendous at finding teammates off his penetration and pick and rolls. Having Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross ready to be able to disrupt and defend him will be crucial. On pick and rolls, Dent averages .831 PPP when he keeps the ball to shoot. When he passes, New Mexico scores .959 PPP off his pick and rolls, particularly efficiently off rolls and cuts, though a majority of possessions go out to shooters.

New Mexico doesn’t necessarily shoot lights out from the perimeter, but 34.1% is above the median for D1 this year. They also don’t just settle for jumpers off spot up opportunities, driving to the rim about 1/3rd of the time off Dent’s passes.

I’ve clipped a sample of just how lethal Dent can be off of P&R opportunities, whether creating for himself or others.

Other 3 Factors

Without belaboring the point, the keys to Friday for Marquette will be limiting transition baskets and forcing Dent into a half court game, but there’s plenty more to look out for.

One thing that differentiates New Mexico from the style Marquette plays, even though both are heavily into transitions and pick & rolls is the shot location. The Lobos have a very low 3-point rate with 32.3% of shots coming from long distance, good for 334th in the country. Instead, New Mexico attacks the rim with abandon, and draws a lot of fouls, ranking 50th in the country in free throw rate compared to 226th for MU.

Their top-4 in minutes played all had a FT Rate over 30%. In comparison, only Chase and Stevie topped 30% with Kam Jones at a microscopic 16%. Why do I point this out? Marquette’s backcourt has seen games where important players have been limited with foul trouble, whether it be Kam, Chase or Stevie. New Mexico will seek out contact, and a few early whistles could completely change the game’s outlook.

One other area of focus is turnovers. Marquette is at its best when causing chaos and taking the ball away, ranked 20th in the country. New Mexico may have some games with high TO totals, but for the most part does a great job of limiting those errors, with a TO Rate of 15.6%. However, that did jump up to 19.4% against Q1 opponents, so it will be interesting to see how aggressive Marquette plays, knowing Dent can beat doubles with his passing.

Finally, although Nelly Junior Joseph on his own is one of the best rebounders in the country, as a team New Mexico doesn’t look to be a team that can take advantage of Marquette’s rebounding woes, ranking 127th in the country. Still, with someone as adept as Nelly, who individually ranks in the top 200 of all players, it will be an area of focus.

Conclusion

New Mexico isn’t a team that necessarily stands out for their offensive profile, but they have more than enough pieces and talisman in Dent to score enough to beat you, particularly with a potent defense. More on that later…