Kam Jones was named Big East Player of the Week after putting up back to back 34-point performances, which in and of itself is awesome. It’s a feat no Big East player has done since Markus Howard did it in 2020.
Going one level beyond points scored, into Hoop-Explorer’s Player Impact, Kam’s Birthday show vs Xavier was the 2nd best performance of the season for him, at 15.7, only behind the 17.1 vs Villanova earlier this season. By any advanced statistical measure, Kam was fabulous last week.
But the reason I was particularly happy was that it came on the heels of another great performance vs DePaul, in which Kam had a Player Impact score of 9.2. Below I have his game by game player impact log in Big East play this season. You can see that there is not a lot of green, but more worryingly, there are no back to back impactful games.
Between the cold shooting spell early on then the ankle injury before the Seton Hall game, it just hasn’t felt like Kam had found his level from the year before this season. His stats aren’t even bad, they are fairly similar to last season’s, but the minutes are down and it hasn’t felt like he found a groove since very early in non-con play.
And when I mean his stats aren’t bad, I should qualify that to say his stats are actually better than last season’s in most respects, a season where he was rightfully lauded as a certified bucket nationally.
ORtg? Up 5 points
Usage? Up 3 points
eFG%? Up 2 points
Ast Rate? Up 2 poitns
Rim FG Attempts? Up
Rim FG%? Up 2 points
3Pt%? Up 4 points
And yet, I don’t think I’m alone is saying he had been in a prolonged slump. That’s the power 1 supernova week can have on a full season. Look at the same 2024 splits before the past 2 games.
Of course, that level of production is not only not to be expected, it’s not feasible the rest of the season. Kam won’t hit 10 3s a game at 70% the rest of the way. But his aggressiveness at getting to the rim, drawing fouls and and getting shots up is definitely replicable. Kam has an ability to break down a defense on his own when teams wall up Marquette, and seeing him do it over and over is even more encouraging than seeing him find his 3-point touch again.
But why not both?
If Kam can find some consistency at this point in the season, Marquette’s floor is solidified while the ceiling may need further raising.
Big 3 Resurgence
And as we focused on Kam up top, it would make sense to add in the context of the Big 3 (Kolek/Kam/Oso), using Player Impact. Although DePaul and Xavier aren’t particularly great barometers, the 10 or so game trend, even including the UConn debacle looks quite healthy.
5-Man Lineup
Last season, Marquette had one of the top 5-man lineups in the country in Kolek, K. Jones, Mitchell, Prosper and Ighodaro. Watching them play was such a treat visually, and the numbers backed it up.
Adjusting for opponent quality and luck, Marquette’s starting lineup had a net rating of +33.3 per 100 possessions, meaning the starters scored over 33 more points than they gave up every 100 possessions than opponents they faced, factoring in the opponent’s level of play over 732 possessions.
This season, a less heralded five-man group that replaced Prosper with Joplin has been nearly identical in its success, with a net rating of +33.4 over 472 possessions.
That number shocked me because, while I knew the starters were damn good, it didn’t feel like they were as dominant as the starters last year. But my eye test may be wrong, as the stats, in a pretty robust sample, show us that although the defense is worse for this group than last season, the offense is considerably better, offsetting that defensive regression.
Year over Year Comp
Which got me thinking, this season Marquette won’t be winning the Big East barring a UConn collapse (which isn’t coming) so there won’t be the same level of celebration for regular season accomplishments. But what do the stats say?
Looking at 2023’s metrics through February 26th, you can see that this year’s team has a bit of a leg up on where the squad was at this point last year
So while the accolades might not follow, the acknowledgement that this year’s team has played as well (or better) than last years should factor in when it comes time time to look forward to March Madness.
Tyler is Still Good
The BEPOY wars have begun, and I might join the front later this week. But for the record Tyler Kolek has been head and shoulders the best offensive force in the league.
And he’s actually been better than he was last season, only behind Markus’ record outputs in 2019 and 2020.
Win Matrix
Last note, Torvik’s projections give Marquette about a 44% chance to finish with 15 or more wins in Big East play, a number his models said barely had a 21% of hitting coming into this season.
I will not take this level of success for granted.
Paint Touches 
Leave a comment