Comparing Possible NCAA Matchups

As this post will be useless in about 28 hours, depending when you read it, we’ll keep this nice and short.

Marquette currently projects as an 8/9 in most brackets, with an average of 8.75 in Bracket Matrix, putting it on the 9 line. As such, there’s still a lot of variability in terms of who it might face when the bracket is revealed tomorrow.

To help organize who you might want to see pop up next to MU’s name, a ran a quick comparison of the 7, 8, 9 and 10 seeds in the Matrix looking at some KenPom overall rankings plus how those teams ranked in Synergy against P&R and how post heavy (and efficient) they were.

Personally, I think the most important factor is P&R defense, as that has been one of the most telling aspects to how well Marquette plays, but did also include offensive rebounding prowess because, well, you know.

In any case, we’ll do a much more detailed analysis this week, but let this whet your whistle for now. 

Tier 1: Loyola, USC, Boise St., San Fran

I know it’s counter intuitive to have two top-25 Ken Pom teams in this list, but I think the P&R D matchups, combined with either poor or mediocre post play or rebounding makes these potential opponents the most appealing.

This is not to say they are bad teams, just that Marquette’s weakness (dominant bigs and defensive rebounding) could be offset on the other side of the ball.

Tier 2: Murray St., Davidson, Michigan St.

I didn’t mean to make this a recent NCAA history tier, but it works out nicely. There are some decent numbers in MU’s favor here, but on the whole not all around favorable. Davidson’s post game, Murray State’s rebounding and Michigan State’s P&R defense.

Tier 3: Iowa St., San Diego State, Ohio State

Iowa State and SDSU are both ELITE at P&R defense and would take MU’s bread and butter offense out of sync. Lidell would make Kuath and Oso into popsicle sticks. But at least all 3 teams do have clear weaknesses in MU’s favor.

Tier 4: TCU, North Carolina, Memphis

UNC is the one clear team that the numbers don’t match the positioning. But Bacot and Manek would make for nightmare matchups down low, even if MU’s P&R could offset it on the other end.