Top 55 Players in the Big East: #15-1

(Photo by Ryan Messier/Paint Touches)

For the past four years, Paint Touches has been counting down the top 50 players in the Big East. It started as my personal opinion and over time it grew to the point of having representatives from each of our Big East bloggin’ brethren contribute to the rankings for a truly neutral picture of the best of the BEast. This year was supposed to be the biggest yet with the Prodigal Dawgs returning home to the Big East, pushing our top 50 into a top 55. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic has forced us (like everyone else) to adapt and we are going a little smaller this year. With the season not being confirmed until mid-September, there simply wasn’t enough time to gather the Magnificent 11, get their picks, and write 55 profiles before the season started. Not only that, but with the NCAA holding a fire sale on transfer waivers (unless your Butler and Xavier), we didn’t really know who was and wasn’t going to be eligible for this list until recently (seriously, Marquette had a guy approved like two days ago). Given this, this year’s list was done solo and the players lower on the list have some pretty short profiles.

A reminder of how this works. This is not a true top 50/55 list. Rather than take the top 55 players from the 140ish players in the Big East regardless of what team they are on, we take the top 5 players from each team and rank them 1-55. We do this because, well, if we didn’t, Georgetown may not have had any players make the list. I usually make that joke about DePaul every year, this is how far you have fallen Hoyas. These rankings are based on how we think each player will do this season and this season alone. This isn’t about who has the most upside, who will make the best pro, or who had the best stats last year. It’s about who will have the best 20-21 campaign…assuming we actually survive 2020.

You can find the other posted segments here: #55-31, #30-16

15. Tyrese Martin of UConn
6-6 215 lb JR SF
34.2 mpg, 12.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.3 bpg, 2.0 tpg, 49.7 eFG% (stats for Rhode Island)

At the beginning of the summer, there were a lot of people out there that had UConn penciled in for a finish in the top half of the conference. I was one of the ones who wasn’t sold, that is until Tyrese Martin’s waiver was approved. Martin was originally committed to play for Coach Hurley at Rhode Island but Hurley took the UConn job before Martin got to campus. Apparently, Coach Hurley kept up the relationship and now Martin is set to play a major role for the Huskies. If Martin played baseball, he’d be called a five-tool player. He can score, is a plus defender, a distributor, and is a beast on the boards. Offensively, Martin isn’t one to take over a game. Most of his work is done on jumpshots from mid-range and is accurate enough from deep to keep defenses honest. Bad things tend to happen when Martin tries to put the ball on the floor. Martin brings more value on the defensive end where he is the ideal switchable with a long wingspan, capable of preventing penetration and altering shots near the hoop. Bouknight will certainly score more points and get more pub, but Martin’s versatility will bring a ton of value to the Huskies. UConn is the third time to exhaust all five spots on this list. Unlike the first two, this is not an indication of where they will finish in the conference. Four of UConn’s players appear in the top 27 and they boast one of the deeper benches in the conference. Expect them to be one of the top competitors for the best team that’s not Villanova or Creighton.

14. Noah Horchler of Providence
6-8 220 lb RSSR PF
31.2 mpg, 16.0 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.7 bpg, 2.1 tpg, 56.7 eFG% (18-19 stats for North Florida)

When I sit down to make these lists, I start by inputting a player’s data into a homegrown algorithm to give me a general idea of where each player belongs on the list. I then use the eye test to move players up and down to account for quirks in the math. Noah Horchler broke my algorithm. When I put his numbers in it placed him in the top 5 players in the conference. The algorithm accounts for quality of competition but Horchler’s numbers were just too good and the competition he faced as an Osprey was better than you might think. Eventually, I had to nerf Horchler and he ended up down here at #14. Horchler averaged nearly a double double in his most recent season. In every game but one that season, Horchler grabbed at least six rebounds. He’s not overly large or athletic, he simply has an expert understanding of how a shot is going to come off the rim and where he needs to be positioned to get the board. Horchler played a surprisingly brutal non-conference schedule and put up big numbers against the likes of Florida State (13 and 6), Auburn (23 and 7), Minnesota (9 and 10, while being guarded by Daniel Oturu), Florida (16 and 10), Penn State (10 and 10), and Dayton (19 and 12, while being guarded by Obi Toppin). Even though I doubt the math, I think Horchler ends up surprising a lot of people in his lone season in the Big East.

13. Bryce Nze of Butler
6-7 230 lb RSSR PF
28.7 mpg, 9.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.6 bpg, 2.0 tpg, 63.4 eFG%

I don’t think anyone, including Butler fans, saw Bryce Nze coming. He was an undersized post, who couldn’t shoot, following Coach Jordan from mid?low?-major UW-Milwaukee. Sure, he had good rebounding numbers and was an efficient scorer, but just because that worked in the Horizon league didn’t mean it was going to work in the Big East. Turns out that his play translated just fine. Nze bullied Big East opponents in the post. He has a wide variety of dips, ducks, and pivots that he uses to get the ball past defenders’ block attempts and into the bucket. His nose for the hoop led him to finish with an eFG% that was in the top 25 for the entire nation. Combine this with his prowess on the offensive boards and you can understand the powerful weapon that he was alongside Kamar Baldwin for the Bulldogs. The challenge with Nze is that he feels like a lot more of a Robin than a Batman and Butler will need him to be a Batman this season. His usage was extremely low and his scoring was consistent, not explosive. Besides two games against sub-300 cupcakes, Nze had exactly one game where he scored more than 13 points, a 14-point effort in a loss to Marquette. Nze is a great second-best player to have but its hard to see him as the top Bulldog. Butler has some nice pieces on it but will need real help in the scoring department. Their only hope to avoid a bottom four finish is to embrace an extremely slow tempo and turn every game into a rock fight. Fortunately, this matches Coach Jordan’s style.

12. Julian Champagnie of St. John’s
6-8 220 lb SO SF
25.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 0.8 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.8 bpg, 1.2 tpg, 49.8 eFG%

When I and last year’s contributors put this list together last season, Julian Champagnie was not even close to any of our radars. He was an unranked 2 or 3-star prospect that looked more like a desperation add by Coach Anderson than someone who was going to make an instant impact. Instead, Champagnie started the very first game of the season and only continued to improve as last year’s campaign went on. Champagnie is certainly not a center but often played that role for the running and gunning Johnnies. He’s an athletic specimen with enough strength to hold his own against the bigger posts and plenty of quickness to punish them on the offensive end. Champagnie excels at moving without the ball, often leaving slower defenders behind as he makes a backdoor cut towards the hoop for an undefended layup. He was one of the better rebounders in the league, particularly on the defensive end. His shot is still developing but he showed enough range to know that the potential is there. He has all the makings of a true offensive problem for Big East defenses. Last year, his defense was ahead of his offense. His block and steal percentages were both ranked in the top 350 in the country, marking him as a disruptive defender which fits perfectly with Coach Anderson’s style. Champagnie’s usage was low last season and it’s unknown how he’ll adjust to a bigger role. The last ten games of the season should make Red Storm fans optimistic as he took his game to a completely different level. Over that stretch he averaged 13.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.0 blocks. Champagnie didn’t make any of the preseason All-Big East teams but I think he proves the coaches wrong. If he does, St. John’s has a (very) outside shot of making the NCAA tournament.

11. Paul Scruggs of Xavier
6-4 196 lb SR SG
33.3 mpg, 12.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.8 tpg, 53.7 eFG%

Our blogging brethren over at Banners on the Parkway told us that they had coined the term “Core Four” to refer to the top four players on the X-Men last season. Three of those four are now gone and it will be up to the lone lingerer to try and lead Xavier back to the postseason. Paul Scruggs started as a defensive-minded sixth man as a freshman. His best season came as a sophomore as he set career highs in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. His junior year saw him take a step back in most areas but increase his scoring just a smidge. Scruggs is a large guard who can play both guard positions but is better off the ball. His stat line isn’t eye popping in any one area but he is solid throughout. Good rebounder for his size, known as a great defender, can score consistently though rarely takes over a game. In fact, Scruggs taking over usually mean disaster for the X-men as they were 1-4 when Scruggs scored 17+ points. Scruggs can be too aggressive at times as evidenced by his 23.4% TO%. Scruggs was named a preseason member of the All-Big East Second team and rightfully so as the top player on the Musketeers. Xavier will definitely finish above DePaul and Georgetown and be a part of that mess in the middle. They are working in a lot of new pieces as well as counting on big jumps from their talented sophomores and I see them finishing towards the back of that middle group. My opinion would have definitely changed had the Ben Stanley waiver been approved but he was like the one guy to get his waiver denied this season.

10. Jermaine Samuels Jr of Villanova
6-7 230 lb FR PF
30.3 mpg, 10.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.7 bpg, 1.3 tpg, 53.2 eFG%

We enter the top ten with the first of our three remaining Villanova Wildcats. Few players embody Villanova’s culture better than Jermaine Samuels Jr. Samuels is a high basketball IQ forward who knows and embraces Wright’s system. Though not a stellar shooter (27.6% from deep last season), the majority of Samuels’ points come from wide open jumpshots, mostly inside the arc. Samuels bucks the concept that mid-range is the least efficient shot in basketball as he finished the season with a 64.7 FG% from short range, one of the 50 best marks in the nation for that stat last year. While the majority of his points comes that way, he has a variety of other offensive tools that he uses with great efficiency. He attacks on cuts to the basket, he’s been known to back smaller defenders down in the post, and has even taken a few defenders in isolation. He doesn’t use these tools often, but he’s smart enough to know exactly when is the right time to pull them out of the toolbox. Samuels is also the most defensive-minded Wildcat. He has that coveted switchable frame that allows him to guard all but the speediest point guards and bulkiest forwards. Samuels will never be Villanova’s star, but he doesn’t have to be. Even as a senior, he will play the role of third or fourth scoring option. But what a third or fourth option to have.

9. Christian Bishop of Creighton
6-7 220 lb JR PF
21.6 mpg, 8.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.1 bpg, 1.5 tpg, 59.5 eFG%

Straight from our third remaining Wildcat to our third remaining Blue Jay (they are going to be very good this year, y’all). Christian Bishop is the perfect example of turning a weakness into a strength. Going into last season, the knock on Creighton was that they were undersized and couldn’t stop interior scoring. Bishop seemed to take that as a personal affront and made opponent’s pay all season for trying to beat Creighton with size. Bishop did what he could on the defensive end and performed admirably for his size. He ended up with 5.4% block rate which was good for top 150 in the nation. But in Creighton’s case, the best defense was a good offense. Bishop would punish larger bigs by losing them off the ball and cutting for backdoor layups, and ones, and even the occasional alley oop. Not only that, but despite his size, Bishop was one of the best offensive rebounders in the Big East. On the rare occasion that a Jay actually missed a shot, Bishop was there to extend the possession. In the battle of wills that Creighton engaged in every contest, it was usually their opponents who had to adjust to them being undersized rather than Creighton having to adjust to their opponents. Creighton looks to be undersized again this year and Bishop is another year older and wiser. The possible return of Jacob Epperson (he’s been cleared by I’ll believe he makes it through a whole season when I see it) and addition of freshman big Ryan Kalkbrenner could allow Bishop to see time at the 4, which might actually limit his offensive effectiveness but help Creighton’s defense.

8. Jared Rhoden of Seton Hall
6-6 210 lb JR SF
25.7 mpg, 9.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.3 bpg, 1.0 tpg, 51.6 eFG%

Jared Rhoden didn’t make any of the preaseason All-Big East lists, but he’s my personal pick for this year’s surprise star player in the conference. Rhoden got off to rough start in non-conference play last season. Despite inferior competition, Rhoden was missing everything shooting a measly 19% from long range. He managed to hang on to his minutes because he was playing very strong defense and grabbing a lot of rebounds. Something clicked for him in Big East play. He went from offensively hapless to one of the most efficient scorers in the conference. Rhoden finished conference play with a 3P% of 44.6%, fourth best in the Big East, and the fourth best eFG% (60.1%). With the Myles Powell hype machine in full swing last season, Rhoden didn’t get much attention but his steady scoring and prowess on defense and the boards was the key to more than one Seton Hall victory. Powell is now gone but his less efficient body double Bryce Aiken is set to take on a lot of the scoring load. Aiken will certainly get more pub (as evidenced by his inclusion as an All-Big East honorable mention) but Rhoden is the more compete player and will surprise a lot of Big East fans this season.

7. D.J. Carton of Marquette
6-2 200 lb SO PG
23.9 mpg, 10.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.0 apg, 0.7 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.6 tpg, 55.7 eFG% (stats for Ohio State)

I’d argue that there was no bigger pickup on the transfer market this season than Marquette’s addition of D.J. Carton. Carton is a former 5-star recruit who played starter level minutes for a KenPom top ten prior to ending his season early due to mental health concerns. Carton didn’t play enough games to qualify for KenPom’s national rankings, but the advanced stats he had were out of a sabermatician’s wet dream. In 20 games, Carton posted an eFG% of 55.7% to go along with an assist rate of 26.9% (those are very good for those who don’t know advanced stats). He was a 40% 3P shooter but could also do cruel things to opposing defenses in the lane. Villanova fans may remember Carton dunking on 6’9” Cole Swider in their lopsided loss to Ohio State. Carton plays with unmatched speed and his ability to find teammates while moving that quick is something the Marquette has been sorely missing. The major weakness to Carton’s game is turnovers. He sometimes moves too fast for his own good and took a lot of unnecessary risks that often led to the ball going the other way. While Carton’s stats look promising, it will still be an adjustment to go from one of the guys to the guy on Marquette’s roster. He’s likely to see a big minutes increase and how he handles it will determine Marquette’s fortunes this season. If he plays like a member of the All-Big East first team, Marquette is tourney bound. If he falls short of his preseason honorable mention, MU will be facing a bottom half of the conference finish. From having watched Carton scrimmage, I can honestly say that Marquette has not had a PG like Carton since the days of Tom Crean.

6. Mitch Ballock of Creighton
6-5 205 lb SR SG
36.0 mpg, 11.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.1 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.3 bpg, 0.9 tpg, 60.5 eFG%

Mitch Ballock has some fascinating advanced stats to comb through. He is efficiency made flesh. The man takes almost nothing but threes and he makes so many of them, 92 of them last season to be exact. Both his eFG% and his 3P% ranked in the top 50 of Division 1 last season. And these aren’t your garden variety threes. Ballock can hit threes on the move, without his feet set, with a taller defender’s hand in his face, it doesn’t matter. If you let Ballock get daylight, you are too late. His quick trigger also applies to his passing. Creighton’s offense is poetry in motion when it gets going. Crisp passes moving everywhere until it ends up in the hands of an open shooter. When Ballock wasn’t on the receiving end, he was usually the one finding that open shooter. On the rare night that Ballock was off his game, things usually didn’t go well for Creighton. When Ballock shot 40% or better from the floor, the Jays were a very nice 20-3. When he shot under 40%, Creighton went a much more pedestrian 3-4 against D1 opponents. The obvious knock on Ballock is his defense. The harder to notice but more important knock is his usage. Ballock’s usage last season was a very humble 14.9%, good for 10th on Creighton’s roster last season. Ballock knows his role and doesn’t push himself outside of that. But with a talent like his, he could afford to be a little more selfish. Taking a few shots away from Denzel Mahoney and giving them to Ballock could make Creighton the top offense in the country…which they may have been already.

5. David Duke of Providence
6-5 205 lb JR SG
32.2 mpg, 12.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.2 tpg, 48.3 eFG%

David Duke slides in as Providence’s top dog. His stat line may look like that of a PG but don’t be fooled, Duke is at his best when he’s off the ball. Duke has a quick trigger and deadeye aim from beyond the arc. He only needs a sliver of space from his opponent to get a shot off. He is less effective inside the arc and that is an area of development for him. When he did attack opposing defenses on the bounce, he did a very good job of drawing contact and then making the shots from the charity stripe. Duke is a plus defender who, while not the largest guard, has an impressive wingspan and uses that to keep opposing guards locked on the perimeter and disrupt passing lanes. Consistency is where Duke needs to grow this season. He has the potential to explode on any given night. However, besides a 36-point outburst in a losing effort to Creighton, all of his biggest offensive nights came against low-major competition (22 vs College of Charlestion, 21 vs Stony Brook and NJIT, 17 vs St. Peter’s). He’s had some real clunkers that almost and in same cases did, cost Providence the game (0 for 6 against Georgetown, 0 for 5 against Florida and SJU, 1 for 9 against Seton Hall, 1 for 7 against Penn and Villanova). As the unquestioned leader of the Friars, he will need to avoid those poor performances by picking his spots better or improving his scoring ability in the lane. The addition of a true PG like Jared Bynum should keep Duke off the ball and increase the efficiency of his attack. He is one of the best 2-way guards in conference and will end up on an All-Big East team at the end of the season. Providence should be in the thick of the best team not named Creighton or Villanova race.

4. Sandro Mamukelashvili of Seton Hall
6-11 240 lb SR PF
26.1 mpg, 11.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.6 bpg, 1.4 tpg, 60.5 eFG%

As a Marquette fan, I hate putting Sandro Mamukelashvili in the top five (2019 BET semis) but his play at the end of last season demands nothing less. Mamu started the season with a very solid-non-conference slate. A fractured wrist sidelined Mamu for four non-conference games and the first eight games of Big East play (I don’t count his five minutes against DePaul as a real appearance). It took two more appearances for Mamu to get into his groove and he spent the last eight games eviscerating opponents on offense. Over that stretch he averaged 15.1 point and 7.8 rebounds a game while shooting 60% inside the arc and a torrid 50% from beyond it. This wasn’t against the scrubs of the Big East either. These eight games included four against Villanova and Creighton as well as a road matchup with red hot Providence. Mamu was making jumpshots from all over the floor and when defenses tried to overcorrect, he’d punish them by driving past them for easy layups or thundering dunks. His defense was a bit of a liability during this stretch but the ungodly offense more than made up for it. Mamu flourished as the number two scoring option and one half of Seton Hall’s twin tower lineup with Romaro Gill. This season presents a new challenge as Mamu will be Seton Hall’s alpha dog and the top priority for every defense to stop. He will also likely slide over to the 5, which may help Mamu’s defensive numbers. There are certainly times when they run the twin towers with Ike Obiagu but I expect that to be more of an occasional wrinkle rather than the typical gameplan. Seton Hall has some quality pieces and they look like the most likely team to win the title of best non-Creighton/Villanova team in the Big East. But the distance between them and a bottom half of the conference finish is shorter than the distance between them and the top two teams in the conference.

3. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl of Villanova
6-9 230 lb SO PF
32.7 mpg, 10.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.5 bpg, 2.2 tpg, 49.6 eFG%

It was a very boring race for Big East Freshman of the Year last season. As the only non-injured 5-star freshman in the conference, JRE was pegged as the preseason recipient of the FOY award. Not long after that, Villanova played their first game and JRE put on a clinic, scoring 24 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. No other freshmen came close the rest of the season and JRE came home with some nice hardware. JRE likely would have been a first-round pick in the NBA draft but he elected to return to try to win a third title for Coach Wright. JRE is a face the basket big man. He has range out to the three-point line and can hit shots from all over the mid-range. He can back a man down when he needs to but is a lot more comfortable when he’s hitting spot up jumpers. His best attribute is his rebounding, especially on the defensive end. Opponents did not get many second opportunities to score on Nova’s defense but JRE could often extend possessions for the Wildcats. JRE is far from a lockdown defender but he is fundamentally sound and had a knack for swatting away lazy entry passes. How locked in JRE was on a given night was a good litmus test for how Nova was performing. In games where JRE shot better than 33% from the floor (this is not a high bar, y’all), Villanova went a cool 17-1. 33% or below? The Wildcats struggled to 7-6. If JRE can improve on his 32% 3P shooting and learn that shooting your way out of a slump doesn’t always work, then JRE could play himself into lottery pick consideration.

2. Collin Gillespie of Villanova
6-3 190 lb SR PG
34.1 mpg, 15.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.1 bpg, 1.9 tpg, 49.7 eFG%

Collin Gillespie is just another in the long line of elite PGs that Villanova has become known for. It’s easy to get distracted by the 15 points a game and assume he is a score first point guard. While Gillespie’s scoring prowess is undeniable, the real value he brings is his ability as a floor general. Gillepie had the ball in his hands all the time for Nova, leading the team in usage by a significant margin. Despite this, Gillespie averaged under 2 turnovers a game giving him a TO rate of less than 14%. That is very good for a PG. Combine this with an assist rate that ranked in the top 150 players in the country and you have the ideal player to make the Wildcat offense go. When Gillespie called his own number, it usually involved him attacking out of the pick and roll. Gillespie had the craftiness to get to the rim and the vision to kick to waiting snipers or cutting wings for easy deuces. While the pick and roll was Gillespie’s favorite tactic, he was actually more effective in catch and shoot situations. In fact, Gillespie could get into trouble when he tried to force the drives too much. Villanova went 1-5 when Gillespie attempted 9 or more FGs inside the arc. When Gillespie stuck to what he was good at, great things happened for the Wildcats. On top of his ability as a scoring floor general, Gillespie is also one of the better on ball defenders in the conference and was responsible for more than his fair share of thefts in conference play. Villanova is in a clear two horse race with Creighton for the top spot in conference. Creighton has the better individual talent, but it’s hard to discount the coaching of Jay Wright, and the culture of winning that has been established in Villanova’s program. The Wildcats are my pick to win the Big East (bold prediction, I know).

1. Marcus Zegarowski of Creighton
6-2 180 lb JR PG
34.6 mpg, 16.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 5.0 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.1 bpg, 2.6 tpg, 58.9 eFG%

Sometimes, the title of preseason Big East Player of the Year is a difficult decision between two or more truly deserving players. This is not one of those times. Marcus Zegarowksi is as about as obvious of a pick for preseason POY as there is. He’s the lead returning scorer from the Big East, second in assists per games, is considered a very good on ball defender, and shot within a hair of a 60% eFG%. Zegarowski is electric to watch. Besides post moves, there is not a single offensive tool that Zegarowski is not one of the best at. He is lightening fast and can weave in and out of defenses. He finished last season with a very respectable 54% FG% inside the arc. If opponents dared to attempt a double team (there were a couple who were foolish enough), it either ended up getting split or Zegarowski would swing it around and it likely meant three easy points for Creighton. On top of all that, Zegarowski shot 45.6% from deep in conference play, the second-best mark in the Big East. Zegarowski is an offensive force no doubt, but even he could be forced into bad games. There were some inexplicably bad performances from him (1-10 @Providence/St. John’s, 3-16 vs San Diego St) but they were few and far between. Creighton has the best individual talent in the Big East, no question. I do think it is fair to question how those pieces fit together. Poor defense has plagued Creighton for years. Last season, they put together a defense respectable enough so slow opponents down enough for their high-powered offense to win going away. Ty-Shon Alexander was the lynchpin of that defense. In order to live up to the top ten preseason aspirations that have been all the rage this summer, Creighton will need to find a way to replace Alexander’s defensive presence. Creighton is clearly near the top of the Big East, but they fall just short of the Villanova Wildcats.

Tags: , , , , ,

Categories: Analysis, Offseason

Author:Ryan Jackson

Texas A&M Professional, Marquette Fantatic

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