Advertisements

Marquette vs. Georgetown Preview

Team Generic

Photo by Ryan Messier/Paint Touches

Probable Starters:
1: Jagan Mosely: 6-3 205 lb FR PG: 20.7 mpg, 4.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 3.0 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.3 bpg, 1.5 tpg, .381 FG%, .235 3P%
2: Rodney Pryor: 6-5 205 lb RSSR SG: 31.7 mpg, 19.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.0 bpg, 1.9 tpg, .558 FG%, .514 3P%
3: L.J. Peak: 6-5 215 lb JR SF: 33.3 mpg, 16.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.7 bpg, 2.8 tpg, .500 FG%, .405 3P%
4: Marcus Derrickson: 6-7 250 lb SO PF: 19.3 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 0.9 apg, 0.0 spg, 0.8 bpg, .340 FG%, .350 3P%
5: Jessie Govan: 6-10 270 lb SO C: 19.0 mpg, 10.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.4 spg, 1.3 bpg, 1.5 tpg, .597 FG%, .714 3P%

Probable Bench:
Tre Campbell: 6-2 170 lb JR PG: 18.2 mins per game
Bradley Hayes: 7-0 275 lb RSSR C: 16.9 mins per game
Akoy Agau: 6-8 235 lb RSJR PF: 15.3 mins per game
Jonathan Mulmore: 6-4 185 lb RSJR PG: 14.6 mins per game
Kaleb Johnson: 6-6 205 lb SO SG: 8.5 mins per game

Probable Benchwarmers:
Reggie Cameron II: 6-7 225 lb SR PF
Trey Mourning: 6-9 230 lb JR PF
Ra’Mond Hines: 6-4 175 lb JR SG
George Muresan: 6-9 210 lb FR PF

Notes:
• Georgetown is a balanced team, ranking 55th in offensive efficiency and 61st in defensive efficiency per KenPom.
• The Hoyas are the third most fast paced team that Marquette will have played so far this season, and the fastest of any significant opponent. Georgetown’s adjusted tempo is 72nd fastest in the nation per KenPom. Only Houston Baptist (54th) and St. Francis PA (67th) have been faster.
• Georgetown is led by a player that Paint Touches identified as this year’s top graduate transfer during the summer. Rodney Pryor has come over from lowly Robert Morris and not only kept pace for a high major team, but has elevated his game. His 19.8 points per game are a career high, tied for 52nd most in the nation, and 2nd in the Big East behind the unstoppable Josh Hart. Pryor has accomplished this by finding his three point shot. After shooting 29% from range in his last season, Pryor is knocking down a torrid 51.4% of outside shots. That’s the best mark in the conference and 10th best in the nation. This mark is not on limited attempts. His 3.08 3PAs per game is the 2nd most in the Big East.
• The second head of the two headed monster in the nation’s capitol is L.J. Peak. Like his running mate, Peak is a 6-5 guard with elite quickness and decent outside shot (15 makes on 40% shooting). However, Peak much prefers to use his quickness to attack the basket and get to the foul line. Peak has an elite level Free Throw Rate of .697. That’s best in the Big East and one of the best in division 1. For a team that is short on bigs like Marquette, this could create a nightmare scenario with Luke Fischer and Matt Heldt both in foul trouble. If the FTR wasn’t bad enough, Peak also leads the team in assists, so he is more than happy to drive and kick to an open Pryor for a three. Also, Peak is from Gaffney, SC. Yes, the hometown of President Frank Underwood. Awesome.
• Georgetown is currently a two  man show, but if a third were to emerge, it would be sophomore center Jessie Govan. The Queens native was one of the most intriguing freshmen in the Big East a season ago. He has enormous size at 6”10, 270 lbs but also incredible shooting ability for a guy that size. He didn’t take many threes last season but he made half of them, going 14 for 28 on the season. He has continued that pace and increased the accuracy making 5 of his first 7 this season. As a freshman, Govan seemed to not realize that he was the biggest guy on the floor. He used a lot of jumpers resulting in a very average 2P FG%. He has remedied that this season, adding a lot more post moves to his repertoire. He is shooting an impressive 59.7% from the floor. Govan has been known to disappear in games. He only managed 3 points and 0 rebounds against Wisconsin, 2 points, and 1 board against Oklahoma State, and 1 point and 1 rebound against Howard. However, he is coming off two straight double doubles, one of which was on the road at high major Syracuse.
• Former 5 star and All Big East Freshman team member Isaac Copeland announced a transfer after the Elon game. Copeland struggled this season and saw his minutes nearly disappear over the last few games. His departure could be damaging, but it also opens a lot more playing time for the more dangerous Govan.
• Led by the deadly Peak, Georgetown excels at getting to the free throw line. They are top 10 in the country and best in the Big East in FTR. To use an old Buzz Williams’ stat, the Hoyas have made as many or more FTs than their opponents attempted in 7 out of 12 games. Unfortunately for them, they are also last in the Big East and bottom third of the country for personal fouls per game, committing 20.5 on average. Starters Govan and Marcus Derrickson are particularly vulnerable, each averaging about 3 a game. Expect a lot of free throws and a herky jerky pace of play.
• With only a juco and a true freshman at the PG position, Georgetown unsurprisingly struggles to hang onto the ball. They turn over the ball more than any other team in the Big East. This could spell trouble tomorrow as Marquette is 2nd in the conference at forcing turnovers.

Prediction:

It would be fair to say that neither Marquette nor Georgetown had the non-conference season that they had hoped for. Georgetown does have impressive wins over Oregon and hated rival Syracuse, but they lost games against decent but not great Maryland and Oklahoma State squads…not to mention an unacceptable loss to Arkansas State. Conversely, Marquette won all the games it should have (per KenPom), but they failed to grab any true quality wins. As a result, this game feels like a “must-win” for both programs. Now, there’s no such thing as a must-win in the first game of the conference season, but with both teams firmly on the bubble, this game is a good measuring stick of each team’s prospects.

Before the season started, it seemed like Georgetown might be able to bully its way to a victory with its plethora of big bodies. Since then, Copeland declined and then transferred, Derrickson hit a sophomore slump, Agau has been average, and Reggie Cameron continued his mediocrity. Instead, Georgetown will rely on quick wings and sharp outside shooting. On ball defense has been a problem for Marquette all season. The MU guards simply don’t have the containment ability to handle guards like Peak and Pryor. Expect both to end up with hefty stat lines. To counter this, Marquette needs to extend the defense and pressure the ball handlers. It will lead to some easy buckets but Georgetown coughs up the ball easier than most. Marquette will win the turnover battle and Georgetown will have a better free throw rate. Neither team is great at rebounding. That leaves the final and most important factor of eFG%. This game will come down to who has the better shooting night. The matchup to watch will be Luke Fischer vs. Govan in the post. Govan is a bigger presence but he tend to favor jumpers over post moves and is far from a lockdown defender. If Fischer wins the battle of the bigs, it will open driving lanes for Marquette while shutting them down for Georgetown. That with hopefully some home court advantage reffing for Marquette will give them the win.

Final Score:
Marquette 86
Georgetown 78

Advertisements

Tags: , ,

Categories: Analysis, Home, Previews

Author:Ryan Jackson

Texas A&M Professional, Marquette Fantatic

Subscribe

Subscribe to our RSS feed and social profiles to receive updates.

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s