Numbers to know as Marquette takes on NC State in the Sweet 16

I’m sure there are hundreds of places where you can find great previews on all sorts of angles as Marquette takes on N.C. State in the Sweet 16. But in keeping true to the ethos of Paint Touches, we want to nerd out a bit.

.911 (P&R D)

Going into the matchup with Colorado, the Buff’s individual talent scared me plenty, particularly having seen them in person. But I was more confident than normal because Colorado’s pick and roll defense was graded as “below average” in Synergy’s database, an area where Marquette excels. And wouldn’t you know it, look where NC State ranks. In a dead heat with Colorado, with the 264th best P&R defense in the country.

Now what does this number encompass?

P&R + Pass possessions in Synergy account for all plays that end with a shot, foul or turnover in which there was a P&R directly before then, and also includes passes to spot up shooters. And the reason why this is the first number I look at before games is because Marquette’s offense is so P&R heavy.

In 2024, MU ranks 19th in the county in P&R possessions per game with 28.1, 4th most of all high majors. It is a staple of the offense and something it does extremely efficiently. Marquette scores 0.996 PPP, the 3rd best number of teams averaging at least 25 a game.

So if the thought of Kolek and Kam carving up Colorado to the tune of 1.031 PPP on 33 possessions was fun, the Wolfpack numbers are quite favorable.

17.9 (Post Up PPP)

Of course, despite pedestrian season-long numbers, NC State isn’t in the Sweet 16 simply by luck. It boasts one of the most potent post programs in the country behind D.J. Burn’s 275 pounds of twinkle toes.

During the past 7 games, in which they won 5 games in 5 days at the ACC Tournament, the Wolfpack has actually increased its reliance on its post presence, averaging a whopping 17.9 post possessions per game. To put that in context, NC State only averaged 10.9 post ups this season, which was 10th most in the country. Marquette averaged 2.2 per game, 343rd most in D1, while the average for all teams was 5.6.

So it isn’t just that the Wolfpack is reliant on its post game, it has actually doubled down on it as the focus compared to earlier in the season. And they don’t just do it a lot, they do it efficiently.

Over the past 7 games, they are putting up a 1.144 PPP on post ups, which even at a low volume is absurd. When you combine it with the uber-high volume, this is a post up the likes we haven’t seen in years. At least in a smallish sample.

Marquette in general has been average defending post ups, giving up .872 PPP. Oso Ighodaro has been able to defend some of the best bigs in the country, and Marquette’s defense relies on a lot of movement and activity. Which leads us to our next number.

113 (Post Up Doubles)

Marquette has thrown a hard double team to post ups 113 times this season, the 4th most of any team in the country. They don’t just leave Oso or Ben or anyone else in isolation one on one, they are quick to come with help and try to force a turnover or at least a tough pass out. Marquette has doubled 41 more times than the next most double-heavy squad, Houston, of teams left in the Tournament, so it is quite uncommon.

And NC in particular is a tough opponent to double. Per Synergy, they rank in the 86th %ile nationally in PPP when teams double their post ups, and boy do they see it a lot, as they have been doubled 120 times this season, 12th most in Division 1. And when I say NC State, I actually mean D.J. Burns, who has received 113 of the 120 doubles himself. NC State scores a whopping 1.106 PPP when Burns sees a hard double, ranking 3rd in the country, for those seeing a minimum of 100 doubles.

And to make matters worse, NC State has actually gotten significantly better on doubles during their 7-game streak, including a scintillating 1.417 on 12 possessions against Oakland.

How much is small sample, how much is variance and how much is NC State figuring something out? Not positive. But it’s a fascinating plot line to watch on Friday, as Marquette will face one of the best teams at defeating their preferred type of defense. As a quick note, Marquette did employ hard doubles against Edey 13 times in its matchup in Maui, limiting Purdue to 0.692 PPP in those plays compared to .818 PPP in the 11 it did not send a double.

-18.5 (On/Off Net Rating)

And this is where I’ll let you in on a secret. Surprisingly, NC State is significantly worse with Burns on the floor this year. Per Hoop-Explorer, the Wolfpack is over 18 points worse against top-100 opposition, outside of garbage time, when Burns is on the floor, compared to when he’s on.

And this isn’t a sample size quirk, either. Burns has seen 1,055 possessions on the floor while he’s been off for 620. That’s a robust sample on both accounts.

In particular, the defense is almost 10 points worse, adjusted for opponent quality, giving up 105.1 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor compared to 95.6 when he’s off. That isn’t to say he’s a bad player or anything, simply wanted to note a statistical quirk I was not expecting to see.

Here are the splits with those same parameters for NC State’s lead guard, D.J. Horne.

On offense, though Burns will get a lot of the TV time and attention, Horne is the player who will be most important to contain.