(Editor’s Note: This was written by Adam Wouk, former host of The Golden Break podcast as a follow up to a piece we previously published from him in November. I listened to those episodes weekly when they were running so when he reached out with a post, I was more than happy to share some space.)
Hello Marquette Basketball fans!! Welcome to another edition of…… Screw it. This stinks. No other way to say it. After several promising years, this is tough to watch. Even with some of the small bright spots over the last few weeks, this type of drop is gut-wrenching. In reviewing the last few years of Marquette basketball under Shaka Smart, I think the vast majority of Marquette nation has enjoyed the direction of the program. I bet if I polled Marquette fans last year on whether they felt positive about the direction of Marquette basketball, 90% would have been feeling enthusiastic about the achievements under Shaka. That’s what drove my optimism about a potential turnaround for this team. Shaka had earned my optimism going into this season.
However, that optimism is now being challenged. If I polled that same group of people today, how many percentage points do you think that number drops? 10%? 25%? 40%? I don’t know, but the chatter around this team is very different in a very short amount of time.
What challenges me about what is happening to Marquette basketball is twofold. It’s about what I am seeing on the court and what’s happening around college sports. Let’s start with the 2025–26 Marquette basketball team.
Let’s begin with the obvious bright spot: Nigel James Jr. You can spend 5 minutes on social media and pull up a barrage of statistics about the year NJ is having. Being thrust into the PG position is paying dividends for his long term development. There’s no doubt he plays with the prototypical Shaka energy. He is going to have a stellar Marquette career. He is a threat to score from three, he is a threat to get to the hoop, and he is a threat at creating easy shots for his teammates. He is a do-it-all point guard.
There are two lingering questions I have with NJ.
First, his loyalty to Shaka will be tested this offseason. There will be offers from other programs. Maybe he’s fully committed and he doesn’t entertain them, but a losing season is not what he signed up for. Losing seasons can weigh heavy on intense competitors. It’s something to keep an eye on because the portal insanity only seems to get more insane every year; an important cog to this story that we will come back to later.
My second lingering question is: what’s his ceiling under Shaka? There is no doubt that under Shaka we have witnessed significant growth from players. There are plenty of examples. But there are also guys who didn’t quite get to the level we had hoped; this year especially. Ben Gold hit a ceiling in his play. He did not take the leap needed to lead this team. Chase is in that same camp. When I try to squint and look at what Caedin Hamilton can be as a senior, I am having a hard time developing a clear image. Damarius Owens, who for me was the most promising of all, continues to show flashes but has yet to put it all together. The last few weeks have been a little encouraging, but not enough for me to be optimistic over the long run.
There are other players during Shaka’s tenure who have hit these walls. I always thought David Joplin had another level. Even Kam Jones! For as great as he was, his senior year was a battle down the stretch and he ended his year only shooting 31% from three. And we know what happened in the first round of the dance where he shot 25% from three and turned the ball over five times. Maybe too much was asked of him. Maybe he wasn’t the player we thought.
So, what is the root cause of these walls? Is it Shaka’s development program or are these recruiting issues? Typically, it’s never as simple as one thing, but understanding which is responsible for what is something Shaka has to fix and has to fix now. He cannot build a program that is fully predicated on player development and have guys hit these walls. He is more dependent on his development program than any coach in the country because he has locked himself out of the portal market.
If continuity is a key function of your program, then its main tenet should be elite development. Otherwise, continuity is meaningless. The sophomores and juniors on this team had 1–2 years in this program training in this system, learning from great leaders like Stevie, Tyler, and Kam. Those years in practice should have rounded out flawed tendencies and built players ready to take the mantle. Shaka talks a lot about how young these guys are and how they haven’t had the experience. I think that is a bad excuse. Not only have they had the benefit of system continuity, but there are several other teams who are younger and playing significantly better ball: Arizona, Miami (OH), Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and Akron, just to name a few. So why couldn’t they take the torch when it was their turn to step up?
Outside of the freshmen on this team, everyone else should have been further along in their development. What you do in the years when you sit the bench and wait your turn is pivotal in a program built this way, because today teams have more capacity to improve in one year than ever before.
And this leads me to my second challenge.
Holy shit, college sports are under tectonic plate shifts that are turning the foundations of the sport to rubble. Forget what you knew about how to build a program in college sports. Those rules no longer apply. Welcome to the professionalization of college sports. It feels like overnight programs have moved from collegiate sport to amateur professional associations. Money has changed the game. For better or worse is a debate for another day, but acknowledging these realities is imperative to staying relevant. Look at what Mark Cuban has done for Indiana football or the money Texas Tech football has extracted from big oil. BYU basketball has gone from mid-major spoiler to the big dog at the dinner table with bags of cash raining down on the program.
In 2021, less than 5% of programs had GMs. Today, around 85% of high-major programs have a GM. Utah is now partnered with a private equity firm. Phil Knight has written a blank check to the Oregon Ducks! Coaches no longer have to solely rely on recruiting to build a championship program. The influx of cash is stirring the portal madness. It created free agency. There’s just as much talent in the portal as there is in high school. Teams can fill holes with a snap of a finger—whether it’s finding one or two role players to round out a roster or folding your hand and drawing five new players overnight. This no-rules portal pool is concentrating the talent. It’s creating a K-shaped league of those with resources and those without.
Shaka’s next move could be what makes or breaks his career in coaching. Yes, CAREER. If he is truly a man of “growth mindset,” then he has to be willing to look in the mirror and recognize that he has to adjust to the tide of the league. I am not saying he has to blow it up. He can find a middle ground.
Now, Shaka would probably say that he made a commitment to these guys to help them get better. But he also made a commitment to them to win. By holding onto players who can’t cut it or aren’t the right fit, aren’t you breaking that commitment to win? I admire Shaka’s dedication to helping these young men become better people and players, but unfortunately, this isn’t high school basketball. Coaches are going to miss on recruits; that’s part of the game. But he has to give the program an opportunity to succeed by finding players in the portal to make up for those misses.
Winning is paramount in a sport that is no longer a collegiate program but a semi-professional league. To do that you have to meet the league where it’s at. For example, from what any fan has been able to gather, Shaka won’t talk to agents. I wouldn’t want to either, but too bad. This is the game now. Marquette does have a GM, but the MU GM isn’t built to help with roster construction or serve as a go-between for coaches, players, and agents. Instead, at MU they focus on internal NIL opportunities. In essence, the MU GM is the agent. If you don’t want to talk to agents, fine, but at least restructure your GM to do it for you. Put yourself on a level playing field with the rest of the league and get that extra set of eyes who can purely focus on identifying players that fit your program.
It will be interesting to see what Shaka does next. Does he pull a 180 and become a portal fiend? Does he find one or two players to help round out holes in this squad? Does he hold his ground and stick to his vision? Or does he go the Tony Bennet route and hang up the whistle? This will be the most important off season of Shaka’s career.
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Paint Touches 
Very good piece of journalism about MUBB. I fully agree with you that the portal and NIL are paramount into building championship caliber teams these days. Otherwise, all we will get is leftovers. Rick Pitino recently stated on a podcast this last week that what is needed for most of the Big East, with the exception of UConn & St. John’s is that teams need and NIL budget of $8-$9 Million. MU is going to be left behind if we don’t get into real college basketball game of today.
So very well written, thank you. Jeffrey C. Duggan 262-365-8591~ show a litt
Terrific article, says a lot of things I believe many MU fans have been saying. I believe Shaka’s future is tied to Nigel James. If Nigel takes a $2-3 million offer from, say, St. John’s, Shaka will walk right into a TV analyst role. I don’t believe he wants to spend the rest of his life working in what has become a cesspool.