If you are reading this blog, you have probably related a bit too much with his A-tier Tweet at some point.
In the moment, Marquette’s result affect my mood, my appetite and pretty much the rest of my day. It’s probably unhealthy, but it’s the truth.
And yet as time progresses, I find that the general ups and downs of a given season are usually replaced by the foggy memories we hold on to, whether good or bad. Which is weird right. I can spend a whole week riding high after a big win, and 3 years later all I’ll remember was the bad result at the end of the season.
So in order to best capture the vibes of any given week, I figured I’d start a running log using the least emotional measurement everyone uses. KenPom. I’ve taken the Adjusted Efficiency Margin he basis his ratings on from every Monday back through 2017 in order to give us some context.
This Year
The thing about models like KenPom’s, is they use preseason data to make informed projections that isn’t extremely reactive to single game samples. If it thinks a team will be ok, one good/bad game won’t swing it up/down 50+ spots overnight. As the calendar turns to December, that preseason data starts to be removed until none is left by mid January, just actual on court results. And we are close to that point.
When it comes to Marquette this season, I didn’t think it would be possible to maintain a freefall for this long, but here we are. With game results featuring almost exclusively, the expectation that it would be a bubble team has given way to the reality that it’s one of the worst high major teams in the country.
After giving away a win late against Seton Hall by giving up a 13-0 run in the last 4 minutes, the team went on the road to UConn and put up a decent showing in the first half, before using a late garbage time spurt to cover the spread for the first time since Black Friday.
While an 0-2 week isn’t good or even ok by any measure, there were signs of life this week that had been missing all oof December, as can be seen by the flat line above. Have we found the bottom? I wouldn’t bet on it just yet.
NCAA Tournament Odds
LOL, remember when I thought this was worth tracking? Marquette has to win the Big East Tournament, so basically 0%.
Player Impact
To make up for removing the NCAA Tourney section, here’s a new part, updating the player performances as measured by Hoop-Explorer’s Player Impact grade in my 2026 dashboard.
After a blazing start to the season, Chase Ross has posted 6 straight negative impact games. For context, Kam Jones’ lowest impact grade last season was a +1.0. This isn’t meant to say this is all Chase’s fault, simply noting that as the noncompetitive losses mount, having your stalwart in a funk will make it look so much worse.
In that span, Chase is shooing 32% from 2, 17% from 3 and has negative advanced metrics. Some of that is better opposition, but Ross played well earlier in the season against high majors like Indiana and Oklahoma. Some of that is the scouting report shows MU if bereft of talent so all focus goes on Chase. But more of it is inexplicable. This missed layup against Seton Hall probably cost them the game, and that’s a play Chase finishes 100 out of 100 times.
In any case, with Zaide Lowery’s departure, there is almost no veteran presence left. Chase has to figure it out to prevent the ignominious records from mounting.
Shaka’s Tenure
Of course, even though this is meant to highlight a given week’s ups and downs, I still want to throw some context in there. Here’s a look at how Marquette has graded out in KenPom each week of Shaka’s tenure.
(The horizontal “Top XX” lines are set not at any given year, but at what the averages for the 10th, 30th and 50th ranked teams are.)
Marquette is currently at the lowest point in Shaka’s tenure by over 4 points.
Program History
And going back a bit further than that…
(The horizontal “Top XX” lines are set not at any given year, but at what the averages for the 10th, 30th and 50th ranked teams are.)
As of 1/5/26, this is currently the 2nd lowest point in recent Marquette history, only trailing the first week of the 2015 season, when it lost to Belmont, went to OT with IUPUI and was shellacked at home by Iowa. That low point was 4.91, and this team is sitting at 4.94. A loss to Xavier this week will put a new “leader” on the board.
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Paint Touches 
Do you think Ross is hurt? We’ve heard nothing but his shot is obviously off, his lift is diminished and almost every free throw missed is short. My eye test says there is something wrong and he is trying to gut his way through it.
Not sure if it’s physical, but he does go through a yearly undisclosed injury, so maybe?