If you are reading this blog, you have probably related a bit too much with his A-tier Tweet at some point.
In the moment, Marquette’s result affect my mood, my appetite and pretty much the rest of my day. It’s probably unhealthy, but it’s the truth.
And yet as time progresses, I find that the general ups and downs of a given season are usually replaced by the foggy memories we hold on to, whether good or bad. Which is weird right. I can spend a whole week riding high after a big win, and 3 years later all I’ll remember was the bad result at the end of the season.
So in order to best capture the vibes of any given week, I figured I’d start a running log using the least emotional measurement everyone uses. KenPom. I’ve taken the Adjusted Efficiency Margin he basis his ratings on from every Monday back through 2017 in order to give us some context.
This Year
The thing about models like KenPom’s, is they use preseason data to make informed projections that isn’t extremely reactive to single game samples. If it thinks a team will be ok, one good/bad game won’t swing it up/down 50+ spots overnight. As the calendar turns to December, that preseason data starts to be removed until none is left by January, just actual on court results.
When it comes to Marquette this season, I didn’t think it would be possible to maintain a freefall for an entire nonconference season, but here we are. With game results featuring more prominently, the expectation that it would be a bubble team has given way to the reality that it’s one of the worst high major teams in the country.
After losing handily at home to a bad Georgetown team it went on the road to Creighton and fell behind by as many as 31, dropping 2.05 AdjEM points, which is the 3rd worst drop this season, and the 4th worst single week drop since I’ve been able to log back to 2016. Of the 5 worst drops in the last decade (214 total weeks), this season has seen 4 of them alone.
It isn’t just that Marquette is losing, or performing worse than expected, it is a team that doesn’t play well on either end (via eye test or stats) and almost 2 months into the season, seems to somehow be getting worse.
NCAA Tournament Odds
LOL, remember when I thought this was worth tracking? Marquette has to win the Big East Tournament, so basically 0%.
Player Impact
To make up for removing the NCAA Tourney section, here’s a new part, updating the player performances as measured by Hoop-Explorer’s Player Impact grade in my 2026 dashboard.
After a blazing start to the season, Chase Ross has posted 4 straight negative impact games. For context, Kam Jones’ lowest impact grade last season was a +1.0. This isn’t meant to say this is all Chase’s fault, simply noting that as the noncompetitive losses mount, having your stalwart in a funk will make it look so much worse.
These 3 layups perfectly encapsulate the vibe.
And then the season defining video from earlier last week.
Shaka’s Tenure
Of course, even though this is meant to highlight a given week’s ups and downs, I still want to throw some context in there. Here’s a look at how Marquette has graded out in KenPom each week of Shaka’s tenure.
(The horizontal “Top XX” lines are set not at any given year, but at what the averages for the 10th, 30th and 50th ranked teams are.)
Marquette is currently at the lowest point in Shaka’s tenure by over 3 points.
Program History
And going back a bit further than that…
(The horizontal “Top XX” lines are set not at any given year, but at what the averages for the 10th, 30th and 50th ranked teams are.)
As of 12/22/25, this is currently the 2nd lowest point in recent Marquette history, only trailing the first week of the 2015 season, when it lost to Belmont, went to OT with IUPUI and was shellacked at home by Iowa. With no games this week Marquette should be safe from that ignominious record. But it probably won’t be long.
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