If you’ve read the stuff I’ve published so far this season, you know it’s mostly been negative. And that’s not because I’m a hater, it’s just that I’m data reliant and the data is telling us an extremely negative story.
And because I don’t particularly enjoy wallowing in negative thoughts, I’ve avoided a lot of the usual data dives I’d have gone through at this point in the season, particularly when it comes to lineup data. What does it matter which parts we plug in, the whole is still broken.
But as I was digging into a non-Marquette question, I came across a piece of data that I couldn’t quite believe.
Below is a screenshot from Hoop-Explorer, listing the top-5 lineups in the Big East, based on Net Rating, that have a minimum of 50 possessions. Despite having a losing record and having multiple blowout losses on its resume, Marquette somehow finds itself with a lineup that ranks 2nd best in the Big East at a whopping +44.5 Net Rating. That means that when you adjust for opponent quality, this 5-man group (Nigel James, Chase Ross, Zaide Lowery, Royce Parham and Ben Gold) has been near elite.
There’s one big problem, look all the way on the right of the table and you can see this lineup has only played 64 possessions together this season, fewer than any other in the top-5. In speaking with Marquette staff previously, they tend to discount lineup data until it has 100 possessions together, as the small samples can create a lot of noise. And I get that, I’m not saying Marquette would be amazing if they just ran this lineup out some more, it doesn’t work like that.
BUT I SURE AS HECK WOULD LOVE TO FIND OUT!
I’m sorry for the Jae Crowder speak, but I literally can’t believe what I’m seeing. I thought there might be an error in the Hoop-Explorer logs, so checked in with Evan Miya’s site.
A slight variation in the exact numbers, but a very similar overall story. The advanced stat sites have data that is telling us there is a lineup that performs extremely well, in an otherwise miserable season.
I think the most frustrating part is that I’ve been thinking/saying this was Marquette’s best lineup for almost a month now. This isn’t meant to make it seem like I know anything (I promise you I don’t) just that what the eye test was telling us before the bottom dropped out, is validated by more than just a hunch or feel.
So then I went back into Hoop-Explorer and poked around a little more. It’s felt like we haven’t really seen this 5 play much of late. Here is a screengrab of the game by game graph of possessions played.
After playing 14 possessions against Oklahoma, we’ve only seen 6 possessions the last 3 games combined. Zaide was booted from the starting lineup and Sean returned from injury, so it makes some sense. But then you see the results in those 3 games and it makes no sense.
Here’s the log of possessions and results if we just focus on top-150 opponents.
Indiana: 8 poss (+2)
Maryland: 8 poss (+4)
Dayton: 22 poss (+6)
Oklahoma: 14 poss (+4)
Wisconsin: 4 poss (-5)
Purdue: 2 poss (+2)
So these results aren’t simply feasting off of cupcakes. And there was a clear increase up to Dayton and then a significant decrease in the deployment of this lineup. I don’t get it.
And one more thing, while I don’t think starting is the end all be all when it comes to lineups, there is a strong case to be made that adjusting the starting lineup (perhaps with a lineup that has had incredible results so far) would be particularly beneficial for a team that gets off to very slow starts this season.
Against all opponents, Marquette is a -31 in the first 10 minutes of the game, and +60 the rest of the time. Sure, that green turns to red once we take out the cupcakes, but the worst chunk is still the start of the game, followed by the start of the 2nd half.
And I’ll say this one more time to reiterate the point, I do not think there is a “1 simple fix” that will magically make Marquette good. I think it’s way easier to play with numbers days and weeks after the fact rather than during the heat of the game. I also think that Shaka and the staff see way more performances in the practice setting than we do in games, and they have larger goals and strategies in mind. I promise I am not saying that I know better and the staff doesn’t.
What I am specifically saying is this current Marquette team is one of the worst we have ever seen in our lifetimes, and I would much rather try to optimize for the small bit of positive data we can see. It may or may not work, but one thing I do know is the staff has had no issues riding a single lineup in past seasons.
797 for Kam/Stevie/Chase/Jop/Ben in 2025, most in the Big East and 4th most nationally.
567 for Kolek/Kam/Stevie/Jop/Oso in 2024, 4th most in the Big East and 31st most nationally.
732 for Kolek/Kam/Stevie/OMax/Oso in 2023, 3rd most in the Big East and 15th most nationally.
Sure, it’s easy to ride a lineup that we know is incredible, but that’s all I’m asking is to try it more. If it doesn’t work, then it was just a blip from a small sample, but nothing really changes big picture. If it does work, now the rotation sharpens and players can be used in spots that better suit them.
May the best be yet to come.
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Paint Touches 
Let’s print 100 signs with this lineup on it and hand them out and everyone holds them up until this group is on the floor together
This lineup passes the eye test as well. And given Zaide has a case of the yips right now I’m ok with Stevens in that spot. I think one of the reasons Royce struggles early in games is that he is usually coming into the game at the same time we’re bringing in backup guards….he is best when being fed an easier shot not being relied on to create for himself