Marquette’s 2026 Nonconference Report Card

I’ll save you a long read, it’s an F. There is not 1 person associated with the program, whether fan, coach or player who could say otherwise with a straight face. But I know you are here for more than the obvious, so let’s dive in.

Team Grades

It would be easy to say Marquette has failed because it has a losing record, but the record actually doesn’t tell the full story of how bad Marquette has been. Marquette has a losing not because of luck, or bad bounces, but because it can’t score efficiently and lets other teams do so.

Offense: F

Using KenPom’s data back to 1997, this is currently the 4th worst Marquette offense we’ve seen. Not since Wojo’s first 2 seasons had we we even come close.

Marquette is only shooting 30.8% from 3, 275th worst in D1. More shockingly, it’s only shooting 53.4% at the rim, per CBB Analytics, which ranks 340th. If you take all the low majors out of the picture, that plummets to 48.7%, 4th worst in the country.

If anyone wants a glimmer of hope, the Shot Quality model has MU’s shot selection as quite good still, and expected at least 3 more wins. However, this isn’t an unlucky blip, in my opinion. At some point, this team is just what it is.

Defense: F-

And while there are plenty of reasons for the bad offense, I had a big drop in offense penciled in with the loss of Kam and Jop and Stevie. Maybe not that large, but still, I though the O would be clunky outside of transition opportunities. What has blindsided me, however, has been the porous defense. In KenPom, a rank of 74 feels bad but not disastrous, but when you take the Q4 games out of the picture, that plummets down to 138th in Torvik’s rankings.

And in particular, check out that eFG% D number (59.2%). It’s well established that eFG% is the most important of the 4 factors by far, and yet Marquette is currently a sub-300 team, allowing non cupcakes to shoot almost 60% for eFG%. I can’t overstate how disastrous this is. But for context, the worst defense I’ve ever seen, Wojo’s 2018, only gave up an eFG% of 55.9%.

The perimeter defense allows way too much penetration. The hard hedging is slow and ineffective. There is no rim protection. The rotations are frantic and unhelpful. If you need numbers to back you up, Marquette’s man to man offense is giving up 1.094 points per possession to the non-low majors so far this season. For context, the worst man to man team this season is Arkansas Pine Bluff, giving up 1.081.

This was a team that projected to be great on that end, and instead is abysmal. I don’t think F- is strong enough to convey my disappointment.

Expectations: F

I needed some context to drop some more charts in because it isn’t just that Marquette is bad relative to our own expectations. It’s also bad relative to the rest of the conference.

Marquette has had most disappointing season, based off drop in Adjusted Efficiency Margin in KenPom, compared to the preseason baseline. And it’s not close.

If you want to use more sources, Massey’s composite ranks tracks 20+ sites and tells a similar story. From a top-40 squad in the preseason, to just above 120, fending off DePaul for worst in the league.

I don’t know what else there is to say, by any measure, this team has been a failure.

Player Grades

Of course, even as the collective may be poor, I wanted to separate some of the individual performances. I got together a list of some of the stats I like to use that measure both offense and defense, and put them in the color coded table below.

There’s way more red than green.

Chase Ross: A-
It’s difficult to fathom how anyone on such a disappointing team should get an A, but Chase Ross has made the star leap we all hoped was possible after an outstanding freshman season. He has a career high offensive rating (117.2) even as his usage has jumped by 8 points, which is an extremely rare combo. And that’s with a dip in his 3-point shooting of late. He’s a top-14 player in the conference by BPR and RAPM, both metrics heavily impacted by team results. There is only so much he can do, but it’s not a knock on Chase at all that the team is where it is now.

Ben Gold: C-
On the one hand, it feels like Ben has stagnated from his sophomore year potential. He still lives mostly on the 3-point line. He still has trouble defending 5s and isn’t great on the perimeter. He isn’t a knockdown shooter. On the other, he’s still easily the best big on the team and putting up career best rebounding numbers. But that’s faint praise. He’s a great 6/7th option on a good team, but not built to carry a team, or even be a key piece. He hasn’t been terrible. But he hasn’t been great. And this his grade of C-.

Zaide Lowery: D+
This grade is probably biased by recent events, but do you know how severe issues have to be for Shaka Smart to pull you from the starting lineup without it having be injury related? Not only that, since being pulled in the 2nd half of the Valparaiso game, Zaide’s minutes have seen a precipitous decline. Something is off. And to be fair, he seems off. Maybe my expectations were too high, but even as a 3 and D guy, he’s left much to be desired. He’s only shooting 30.1% from 3, and much more worrying, a putrid 43.5% from 2. Of the 33 Big East players to take 35 or more shots at the rim, Zaide ranks dead last. Of the 200+ high major players with the same threshold, Zaide ranks as the 4th worst. And I don’t mean to keep ragging on him to be mean, but he was a great rim finisher last season, on almost the exact same number of shots. He doesn’t have to be Villanova Zaide every game, but this current version has been significantly below the level he’s already shown.

Sean Jones: F
I get it, this is harsh seeing as he was already coming off a severe injury and hadn’t seen the floor in over a year, before a new, different, injury knocked him out for another few weeks. But the truth is, no matter what we are trying to measure, he hasn’t come close to being the starting point guard. BPR, RAPM, Impact, BPM doesn’t matter which set of stats you want to use, he’s been a negative player. I’m hoping time is all that is needed, but through the first 11 games, hope has not gotten the job done.

Tre Norman: F
This is another harsh grade, particularly since my own expectations of Tre were extremely low. But as with Zaide, I will let Shaka’s playing time decisions do the talking. He’s only cracked double digit minutes once this season against non-cupcakes, and that was 12 minutes against Dayton. But since then, 7, 4 and 3 minutes. As a junior, he can’t even get some run while down 30 points in a blowout loss.

Caedin Hamilton: F
I don’t feel bad about this grade at all in the sense it’s too negative. I do feel bad at the fact Caedin has been put in this situation, he isn’t a high major starting center, and that’s not his fault. Scroll back up to the chart with all the metrics, he’s in the red on all of them. And the scariest news is that it’s actually getting worse, not better. Here’s his game by game trend. He’s on pace to finish with the worst BPR in the Shaka era. There is just no silver lining.

Royce Parham: C+
After a way better than expected freshman campaign, I had my expectations dialed way up for Royce’s sophomore campaign. And while the impact metrics like BPR and RAPM have him as one of the best on Marquette this season, I am left with a disappointed feeling. He’s only shooting 25% from 3. He doesn’t get to the line much. He’s a black hole with the ball. And the defense hasn’t looked much better. But he still looks like he belongs and should be getting more minutes.

Damarius Owens: F
At the end of the Purdue game, with the result locked in and Purdue at half speed, Owens showed glimpses of what made him Shaka’s highest rated recruit coming out of high school. But I can honestly say that’s the first time this season that can be said, even in previous stints against cupcakes. He makes the team so much worse when he’s in the game by all measures. I saw him with my own 2 eyes in high school. I bought all the stock. I want him to be good. But despite the individual ability, at this point in time, he’s a net negative on the floor.

Nigel James: B
Nigel is probably the brightest beacon of hope we’ve seen from Marquette. His shiftiness and ability to get to the rim is elite. Now, the finishing (47.7% at the rim) and shooting (25% from 3) are not there yet, which is why his ORtg is only 107, and the defense, despite some flashy steals, needs a lot of work. But the talent just oozes off the screen. He’s not afraid to have the ball in his hands in big moments, and has an aggressive mindset that can’t be taught.

Adrien Stevens: B
If you are playing well enough to start as a true freshman for Shaka, it speaks volumes. Adrien’s all in one metrics aren’t great yet, and a lot of that is defensive based, ranking as the 2nd worst player on MU from a DBPR standpoint, but this feels more like a young player learning in real time rather than someone who has no idea what’s going on. His 34% 3-point shooting isn’t amazing, but is best on the team with 20 or more shots. He makes good decisions and has the best dunk of the season with his yam in the Wisconsin game.

Josh Clark: C-
Josh barely plays and I didn’t think he’d get anything but walk-on minutes this season, which makes his grade incredibly harsh, but in my opinion, Caedin’s performance is ripe for Josh to take those minutes. This team needs a 5 in the worst way, and even a poor one would be an upgrade. And yet, Clark doesn’t see much floor time, because when he does, outside of garbage time, the results aren’t great. How someone that tall only has 41% accuracy at the rim is baffling. But again, that’s me projecting. Based on what was expected on Josh, he has been fine.

Michael Phillips: C+
Phillips is in the same boat. I thought he would get spot minutes at best, so he’s exceeded my expectations there. But his defense looks slow and reactive. He can’t dribble. He has yet to hit a shot inside the arc. As such, he hasn’t cracked double-digit minutes against a team ranked in the top-150. And yet, his shot gives me life. On a team yearning for shooting, he feels like a legitimate answer. It’s not even the low sample size 53%, it’s fully based on how it looks. Here’s to the rest of his game catching up one day.

Coach Grade

Shaka Smart: F

I love Shaka. I love how he rebuilt the program. I love his focus on all aspects of the player. I believe RGV can and will work. I will be his loudest and most passionate defender until the last day.

But there is simply no denying he has done a poor job at building this roster, coaching it and then taking accountability for it.

I went deep into some of my reasoning for the roster issues in here, and will continue to say the failure to evaluate the talent level has killed this season. If you rely on growth and see that all but 1 returning player has regressed, that’s a staff issue as much as a player one.

On talent deficiency and offensive offense

What I think has made the most surprisingly negative impact, from a fan standpoint, is treating the resulting angst of one of the worst seasons in the last 30 years of Marquette history as if it’s somehow irrational. I get he doesn’t have answers for why players are missing the same shots he sees them hit in practice. I get that he’s taught defense the same way for 15 years and has nothing but sterling results to show for it, so he’s not going to change. I get that with a young team, there will be an increased learning curve. And I get fans, myself included, are fickle and stupid.

But the way he has snapped at reporters post-game at mere portal-adjacent questions and generally dismissed the idea that the results indicate any larger issues, feels like he’s avoiding introspection, and assigning blame to outside noise instead.

There is no hiding the results at this point and Marquette has only gotten worse as the season moved on. It’s ok to show a little fire that doesn’t relate to mindset. People don’t need self-flagellation after every loss, but simply verbalizing that the performance doesn’t meet our standards makes a huge difference. We’ve seen it from countless coaches already.

And this is where I’ll note that no, Shaka doesn’t have to handhold fans as part of his job, but in this day and age of revenue sharing, fans speak with their wallet more than ever. Prices are up, as are options other than basketball. And this attendance drop will only get worse next season.

11 games do not determine a tenure. I will continue to yell that all 2026. But there is simply no denying that these last 11 games signified one of the worst stretches of Marquette in the 21st century. If we can’t be honest about the process, how are we supposed to trust it?

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