If you are reading this blog, you have probably related a bit too much with his A-tier Tweet at some point.
In the moment, Marquette’s result affect my mood, my appetite and pretty much the rest of my day. It’s probably unhealthy, but it’s the truth.
And yet as time progresses, I find that the general ups and downs of a given season are usually replaced by the foggy memories we hold on to, whether good or bad. Which is weird right. I can spend a whole week riding high after a big win, and 3 years later all I’ll remember was the bad result at the end of the season.
So in order to best capture the vibes of any given week, I figured I’d start a running log using the least emotional measurement everyone uses. KenPom. I’ve taken the Adjusted Efficiency Margin he basis his ratings on from every Monday back through 2017 in order to give us some context.
This Year
The thing about models like KenPom’s, is they use preseason data to make informed projections that isn’t extremely reactive to single game samples. If it thinks a team will be ok, one good/bad game won’t swing it up/down 50+ spots overnight. As the calendar turns to December, that preseason data starts to be removed until none is left by January, just actual on court results.
When it comes to Marquette this season, I didn’t think it would be possible to maintain a freefall for an entire month, but here we are. With game results featuring more prominently, the expectation that it would be a bubble team has given way to the reality that it’s one of the worst high major teams in the country.
After scraping past Valparaiso in overtime at home and getting embarrassed by Wisconsin on the road, Marquette dropped 2.77 points, which is the worst drop this season, and the 2nd worst single week drop since I’ve been able to log back to 2016. Of the 5 worst drops in the last decade (214 total weeks), this season has seen 3 of them alone.
It isn’t just that Marquette is losing, or performing worse than expected, it is a team that doesn’t play well on either end (via eye test or stats) and a month into the season, seems to somehow be getting worse.
NCAA Tournament Odds
If we want to take a future facing look at the vibes, I like using Bart Torvik’s NCAA Tournament probability tracker. His model runs 50,000 simulations of the season based on that day’s metrics, and gives you the results of those runs. As of Monday the 8th, Marquette had a 0.7% chance to dance. I’ll probably delete this chart going forward, since it’s flatlined. It will take a Big East title in MSG to make the dance.
Shaka’s Tenure
Of course, even though this is meant to highlight a given week’s ups and downs, I still want to throw some context in there. Here’s a look at how Marquette has graded out in KenPom each week of Shaka’s tenure.
(The horizontal “Top XX” lines are set not at any given year, but at what the averages for the 10th, 30th and 50th ranked teams are.)
Marquette is currently at the lowest point in Shaka’s tenure.
Program History
And going back a bit further than that…
(The horizontal “Top XX” lines are set not at any given year, but at what the averages for the 10th, 30th and 50th ranked teams are.)
There’s still a bit of gap between this team and the 2016 team for the crown of worst MU team in recent history, but that gap is closing.
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Paint Touches 
I have been going to games well over 60 years, this is the worst shooting MU team ever. Shaka recruits athletes and ignores recruiting shooters therefore The vibe is awful.
John Murray
jmurray@wi.rr.com
414-350-6001
Your analytics are amazing and verify what our eyes are telling us. This like a baseball coach recruiting players who can’t hit the baseball when it’s pitched.
Stats verify what our eyes see