If you are reading this blog, you have probably related a bit too much with his A-tier Tweet at some point.
In the moment, Marquette’s result affect my mood, my appetite and pretty much the rest of my day. It’s probably unhealthy, but it’s the truth.
And yet as time progresses, I find that the general ups and downs of a given season are usually replaced by the foggy memories we hold on to, whether good or bad. Which is weird right. I can spend a whole week riding high after a big win, and 3 years later all I’ll remember was the bad result at the end of the season.
So in order to best capture the vibes of any given week, I figured I’d start a running log using the least emotional measurement everyone uses. KenPom. I’ve taken the Adjusted Efficiency Margin he basis his ratings on from every Monday back through 2017 in order to give us some context.
This Year
If you thought the vibes were bad last week, boy howdy was this week an unwelcome surprise.
After losing at home in overtime to Dayton and never pulling away from sub-300 Central Michigan, Marquette had its worst week (in Adj EM measurements) under Shaka Smart, and at least since the 2018 season, dropping 2.64 points, a 23.4% larger drop than the previous worst on record in Week 13 of 2018. The 3rd worst drop on that list also happens to be from this season, 2 weeks back.
Graphs don’t always match the vibes but this is a case where it couldn’t be more accurate. It isn’t just that Marquette is losing, or performing worse than expected, it is a team that doesn’t play well on either end (via eye test or stats) and seems to somehow be getting worse.
NCAA Tournament Odds
If we want to take a future facing look at the vibes, I like using Bart Torvik’s NCAA Tournament probability tracker. His model runs 10,000 simulations of the season based on that day’s metrics, and gives you the results of those runs. As of Monday the 24th, Marquette had a 3.4% chance to dance. This chart definitely matches the fan vibes. The NCAA Tournament dream isn’t technically dead, but it will take the sort of miracles that aren’t worth thinking about just yet.
Shaka’s Tenure
Of course, even though this is meant to highlight a given week’s ups and downs, I still want to throw some context in there. Here’s a look at how Marquette has graded out in KenPom each week of Shaka’s tenure.
(The horizontal “Top XX” lines are set not at any given year, but at what the averages for the 10th, 30th and 50th ranked teams are.)
Marquette is currently at the lowest point since the start of the 2023 season.
Program History
And going back a bit further than that…
(The horizontal “Top XX” lines are set not at any given year, but at what the averages for the 10th, 30th and 50th ranked teams are.)
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