I’ve started and left unfinished like half a dozen posts and projects this offseason. It sucks. So to try and change the tide a bit, I asked for some help on Twitter and asked what Marquette questions everyone had in this interim period. Appreciate all the Qs!
Q: Who do you predict will take the biggest leap from last year?
I think there are a few ways to answer this, but I’ll assume we are just talking about returning players. And for that I’ll go with Damarius Owens, not because I think he’ll be the best player and live up to my elevated expectations going into last season, but simply because he had some of the worst advanced metrics we’ve ever seen from a Marquette player, so going from “awful” to “good/fine” will bridge the widest gap of any MU players.
Using Evan Miya’s BPR stat, which measures player impact on both sides of the ball, Owens finished at -0.6, 2nd worst of any Marquette player that played a minimum of 100 possessions in Shaka’s tenure.
Using Hoop-Explorer’s RAPM stat, which also measures impact, Owens finished at -2.7, which is the worst of any qualified MU player in Shaka’s tenure.
This all sounds bad, but it’s the opposite. He has the components to be a great player, and even if I’m not ready to say he will take that enormous jump in 2026, I do think he will be a significantly better player, particularly on defense, with a full offseason and no nagging injuries that delayed his start last season.
Q: Are you concerned about their offensive efficiency metric on Torvik (71) or do you have faith in the team’s commitment to player development? In other words, does the defense need to be elite this year to make it to the dance?
I wouldn’t say I’m concerned about any offensive projections because 1) there are so many new pieces in new roles that any good model has to incorporate a wide range of negative outcomes and 2) I don’t have high expectations for the offense, so seeing a model project a weaker offense is something I already baked in to my personal projections.
This doesn’t decrease my faith in the team’s commitment to player development in the slightest, it’s simply working off what we can reasonably know, and there are a ton of unknowns.
Marquette is the first team ever to have back to back Cousy award finalists (for the best PG in the country) come from separate players. Let that sink in a second. Now that says a lot about the players themselves, but the impact the staff has in both talent recognition and scheming/coaching is huge. Kolek wasn’t a PG at George Mason. Kam wasn’t a PG the first 3 years. If one (potential) subpar offensive season shakes your faith in the program, then we need to talk.
As for the defense, I do think Marquette will need to be significantly better on defense than on offense for any sort of postseason success. I’m not sure how you define “elite” but I think getting to around 15-20 in AdjD rating is both reasonable and necessary.
Q: What is the ceiling/floor for this team?
If we’re speaking generally, I think this team has a 2nd weekend ceiling and an NIT floor.
From a ceiling view, the roster’s athleticism bump unlocks a new defensive level and covers up the potential offensive holes.
From a floor view, the lack of a bonafide go-to scorer keeps MU from racking up Ws. Still good enough to be in the bubble picture, but not enough to dance for the 5th straight year.
Q: Will Chase stay healthy enough to solidify him as our next NBA talent?
None of us can say with any certainty what injuries a player will or won’t have, so I don’t have much to say there, but as to the crux of the question, I don’t think Chase will hear his name called next year. I have been driving the Chase bus the last 3 years, so don’t take this for me being a hater. I just don’t think we’ve seen Chase grow enough in the half court from an offensive perspective.
He can create for himself, but it’s fairly one dimensional in terms of getting out in transition or getting downhill from the top of the arc. Here’s a breakdown of his play distribution per Hoop-Explorer.
For him to get into draft day conversations, I would need to see him become a bit more of a creator. Not saying he has to be a PG or anything, but currently he’s squarely a wing, rather than a combo or even scoring guard, and even with his insane athletic ability and tenacious defensive instincts, I don’t think he’s shown enough to be a 3 and D type NBA player at his height.
Q: Who will take the next steps as underclassmen and which Freshmen will have an immediate impact?
Focusing on the freshman question, after seeing the clips and reading a few different perspectives from the open practice, I went straight to the bank and bought as much Adrien Stevens stock as I could. A player with his size and defensive instinct will find a way to get on the floor. It’s unfair to put the Stevie Mitchell type expectations on a true freshman, but I do think he can see double digit minutes a game from the start.
And yet, when the birdies come around and start twittering about this and that, it’s not Stevens or Chase or Owens that is the first name I hear. It’s Nigel James.
He didn’t participate much in the open practice due to injury/precaution so I have seen none of this for myself. But it’s not just one source and it’s not just one time. Over the last 2 months, James has been consistently the name I have been told has impressed the most. Do with that what you will.
Q: How big of a concern is three point shooting/do you think it can be made up in other areas?
On the one hand, losing Kam and Jop is a huge loss from a 3-point shooting perspective. Not only did they take the most on the team, but they also were the only ones able to create from beyond the arc for themselves. So I get the overall thought about that being a potential area of weakness.
And yet, when you look at what went wrong in Big East play, Kam and Jop from 3 was one of the primary reasons for the disappointing end to the year. Jop shot 30.9% from 3 on 123 attempts in conference play while Kam only hit 26.4% on 129 shots. That isn’t just the most on the team, it’s almost half the 3s Marquette took as a team in Big East play.
This isn’t to say they were bad and I’m glad they are gone. And obviously their spacing allowed others to get open and take better/easier shots, which won’t be the case this year. What I am saying is I think the 3-point shot distribution will be more equitable and I think the results will actually be better, even if the shooters themselves are not as “good” as Kam and Jop were.
This chart still haunts me to this day.
Q: Can Sean and Nigel play on the court together? Could you see the young phenom closing games if not?
I’m still not over Rowsey and Howard playing so much together in 2018, so I’m going to be very definitive here when I’m usually less inclined to be so. HELL NO. Two 6-foot guards doesn’t work. Not when they are both offensive marvels. Not when neither can shoot well.
We may see a bit of overlap here and there, but if we start seeing established rotations with both Nigel and Sean on the floor, my Wojo senses will be tingling and I’m going to be irritable.
As for whether Nigel can close out games, I really have no basis to say he can or can’t. We shall find out together.
Q: What does success look like for Marquette this season? Both for individual players and the team as a whole.
With the caveat that I’m a pretty easy grader compared to the peeps I read and interact with on Twitter, I think making the dance with a top half Big East finish in what is a bit of a transition/gap year will be success. That’s not to say I’ll be elated with a play-in game and cheerleading from Cleveland on a Tuesday, but I think that is the baseline by which this team will be measured. Getting to the dance for a 5th straight year and doing so after losing a consensus all-American (again) and building entirely without transfers would be a complete validation of his vision. Which gets us to the 2nd Q.
Q: How important/what role does this season play in Shaka’s overall tenure?
Marquette could go 3-17 in Big East play and it wouldn’t make a dent in Shaka’s tenure. It would suck and I’d be mad, but an outlier result wouldn’t shake what the last 4 years have built.
However, what it would do, is alter Shaka’s approach to team building. RGV wouldn’t be going anywhere, but a slowdown in the G (growth) would have to be met with additional sources of talent, primarily by the way of transfers. I wrote at length why Marquette hasn’t hit the transfer portal back in March, and the subsequent months made it age quite well.
Any player committed to Marquette will take priority over a player not in the program. That is the foundation of RGV. With your trust, we can get the best out of you and your best is enough to be successful.
A “bad” season would be a datapoint towards seeing that it isn’t enough, and that external additions, even over a current player, are necessary. Now that wouldn’t mean a complete overhaul and a brand new roster, but I think an underwhelming 2026 season would usher in a more concentrated focus on short term talent. That would probably mean more transfers out and so the cycle goes on.
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