Scouting report on New Mexico’s dominant defense

In case you missed it, we broke down New Mexico’s lightning style offense and dangerous playmaker yesterday.

Scouting report on New Mexico’s fast paced offense

Today, we wanted to focus on the other side of the ball, where New Mexico could present Marquette some serious issues.

New Mexico on Defense

Some basics from KenPom. New Mexico ranks 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency, only allowing 95.2 points per 100 possessions. For reference, Marquette only played 3 teams with better defensive efficiency metrics than the Lobos (St. John’s, Iowa State and Maryland), going 1-4 in those 5 games. This is a legitimately great defense that should pose a stern challenge.

P&R Defense

With Marquette’s pick and roll heavy offense, the first thing I always do when scouting an opponent is head to Synergy and see generally how they perform defensively against pick and rolls. This isn’t a guarantee in any game, but it gives us a pretty solid foundation for estimating what the offensive performance will look like, as Marquette runs more P&Rs than all but 5 teams nationally, with 38.8% of all chances coming via this play type.

And New Mexico isn’t just good at defending it, they are great, giving up just 0.785 PPP this season on pick and roll + pass possessions, good for 22nd best in the country. Of tournament teams, only VCU, Robert Morris, Duke, Houston, Maryland, and Tennessee were better this season. For reference, St. John’s, which had the 2nd best P&R defense behind Marquette in the Big East, gave up .826 PPP, outside of the top 60. So the Lobos will be as stiff a test as Marquette has seen in 3+ months, in a loss to Iowa State.

Going through some of their recent games, the Lobos are very aggressive with their coverage, frequently putting 2 defenders on the ball with temporary hard hedges or full-on traps. In the example below, see how far out they extend the ball screen pressure, leaving 2 defenders against the ball handler. Boise does a good job of finding a release valve with their big at the 3-point line, but watch how quickly the Lobos swarm him and force a turnover.

Per Synergy, New Mexico forces turnovers on 18.8% of pick and roll + pass possessions, which is tied for 11th best in the country. (Marquette is 20th with TOs on 18% of P&Rs defended). Once more, they do a phenomenal job of putting multiple on the ball, even when the dribbler keeps possession and gets past the initial defender switched onto him.

Of course, with any aggressive defense come opportunities to exploit a collapsed defense. Watch below as Boise State’s movement at the perimeter gives the ball handler an outlet to pass out to, after being triple teamed near the elbow. This is a staple of Marquette’s offense, and something we will see a lot of come Friday.

For further context, it can be tempting to dismiss some gaudy defensive metrics when a team doesn’t play in a P5 league, but I would highly advise against that. Boise State, where the clips above all come from, ranked 23rd in the country in pick and roll efficiency, scoring 1.009 PPP on over 19 possessions a game. Utah State was even better, ranking 15th while putting up an absurd 1.024 PPP. Against these 2 teams and every P5 team the Lobos played in the noncon, their defense against P&Rs held up extremely well, limiting opponents to below their season average in 8 of 9 games.

Overall, teams scored 0.820 PPP in these games, which is 16.1% below where they’d be expected to be. Again, this is a legitimately great defense.

And one more note, I also like to specifically pull out the possessions where the ball handler finishes the play, known as P&R Ball Handler, as this is something Kam Jones does as much as any player in the country (7th most with 288) and more efficiently than most (4th best PPP of 0.983 minimum 200 poss). Teams that can defend these actions well (like St. John’s) force Marquette into some real issues, as other players need to step up to beat them.

The Lobos are not only good at defending the P&R BH possessions, they are elite, finishing 5th in the country, per Synergy, and only allowing .588 PPP, the best mark of any team in the NCAA Tournament. They have the athleticism at multiple spots to help on these P&R BH drives, while still being able to come back and contest kickouts.

To beat New Mexico, Marquette will have to make the open perimeter shots it gets. On the season, Marquette leads the country in pick and pop shot attempts, but 0.96 points per shot, according to Hoop-Explorer. Gold will get some looks, on Friday, and making them will take on huge significance.

Other factors

Ok, that was a lot of doom and gloom, but I truly was impressed with how New Mexico stacks up against Marquette’s preferred form of attack.

Looking at some of the other efficiency factors, the Lobos are great at not allowing many 2nd chances, ranking 21st in the country on the defensive glass. This is where their big Nelly Junior Joseph really shines, grading out as the 10th best defensive rebounder in the country. Combined with their penchant to get out in transition, it would not surprise me to see Marquette be a little more conservative in crashing the glass, to avoid run outs where New Mexico thrives.

Another area where they generate a lot of their offense is off of turnovers. The Lobos rank in the top-40 nationally for creating turnovers, and 39th in steals. Those live ball steals are particularly deadly, and has been an area where Marquette has been great all season, though faltered a bit in the Big East Tournament. Avoiding giving up these quick, easy fastbreaks and forcing the Lobos in the halfcourt will be crucial.

One last note, New Mexico has elite shot blocking when teams do get near the rim, ranking in the top-15 of D1 teams for block rate. Joseph and Mustapha Amzil in particular do a great job of contesting without fouling. Opponents are only shooting 48.2% from inside the arc against them, a top-75 mark.

One place where New Mexico has not been great has been at preventing opponents from shooting near the rim. Over 40% off opponents shots have come at the rim, per Bart Torvik, allowing a decent 55% on those attempts. Only Auburn and Bryant have allowed a higher percent of shots at the rim in the South regional. This is somethin Marquette fans might be familiar with, as the Lobos’ aggressive defense in the half court does yield opportunities when the defense is slow to shift or recover.

Conclusion

This matchup will be a significant test for Marquette’s style of play, and will pit two teams with very similar defensive philosophies. Avoiding turnovers and hitting 3-point shots will go a very long way to deciding this game.

---

---