Coming into the season, I always lay out expectations for roles and minutes as a way to benchmark expectations vs results at the end of the season. But when it came time to fill in Sean Jones’ minutes, I left them at 0 because I didn’t think it would make sense to have him drop into the rotation halfway through the season.
It’s not that he couldn’t be a useful part of the team, just thought injuries like that usually take over 12 months to get completely healed. Add in the ramp up time for fitness, plus the additional game-readiness that only comes with live action, I thought we’d at most get a handful of games with “healthy” Sean in a best case scenario.
So today’s official update from the team that he would sit out the rest of the season and maintain another year of eligibility made me sad for all of the work that he put into the rehab process the last 11+ months, but it was what I had expected to hear, so did not shock me.
However, unlike when I made my minutes predictions last summer, where I thought Sean’s impact would be muted, I am now of the opinion that Sean is the exact piece that Marquette is currently missing, and would have had a huge impact, so not being able to count on him has some fairly big consequences for the team this year.
Most Indispensable
I’ve been talking and writing about it for over a month now, but it has only become more pronounced with additional games. Since I’ve followed Marquette in 2008, no single player has become as indispensable to the success of the team as Kam Jones is for this 2025 squad.
When he’s on the floor, Marquette is + 243. When he’s off the floor, Marquette is -33.
Of course it’s obvious that teams will be better with their best players on the court, but this disparity is unheard of. After 15 games last season, Marquette was a +19 in 122 minutes without Tyler Kolek on the floor for a +9.2 Net Rating. When Oso was sitting, MU was +8 for a +3.6 Net Rating, per CBB Analytics.
When you adjust for opponent quality and take out garbage time, the numbers get even more stark. In the 147 possessions without Kam, Marquette is -16.0 per 100 possessions, per Hoop-Explorer, which is akin to the 313th best team in the country.
It points to the fact there is no one to adequately keep the ship afloat when Kam is sitting, particularly from the guard spot. You are not always going to have deep benches, but the current bench can’t be relied upon for more than token minutes.
I think the Providence game was the perfect example of this. Up by 27 points at the half, the game was all but over. It would have been a perfect time to give Kam an extended rest, with a heavy schedule upcoming. But the team’s play forced Shaka’s hand.
With 12:56 to go in the 2nd half and Marquette up by 26, Kam came out before the under 12 timeout to get a few more seconds of rest, as has been fairly normal this season. But 1 minute and 16 seconds later, Kam was already checking back in as Providence had cut the lead to 22 in just 3 possessions, with 2 PC free throws pending. Kam didn’t end up coming out for good until the 4:10 mark with MU up by 25. Needing your star to play 34 minutes against a mediocre opponent you had dominated by 20+ for most of the game is a glaring siren.
This isn’t meant to be a criticism of anyone, least of all Shaka’s sub patterns, as I’m the one yelling at the TV to get Kam back in after 30 seconds without him. It’s simply a matter of fact that for this team to be good, Kam needs to play. A lot.
Of course, that amount of activity is bound to take its toll on players.
Kam’s Recent “Struggles”
And you don’t have to dig very far to see some of that wear and tear already showing through. Take a look at Kam Jones’ splits from the first 8 games vs the last 7 games of the season. Usage is up by 10(!) points while his ORtg is down by nearly 30(!) points.
Yes, it’s easy to be very efficient against cupcakes, and 4 of those first 8 were against sub-200 teams. Yes, Kam usually goes through a prolonged shooting slump mid season, no matter who he’s playing. Yes, the numbers he’s putting up are still impressive enough to be considered a BEPOY front-runner and NPOY candidate.
But my concern the past few weeks has been less about the 3-point shooting, which is volatile in the best of times, but rather the difficult miles Kam had to carry for basically the first time in his career. Not only is he being asked to play 35+ minutes a night, he’s handling point duties 90% of those possessions and the physical toll that comes with that. In his previous slumps, you could always count on a few magical passes from Kolek and Oso to get Kam the good looks he needed to break out of any funk. And without Sean, that’s not coming this season, unfortunately.
Diving into Synergy, a few peeps on Twitter had wondered what his 3-point shot selection looked like and sure enough, there is a significant jump in the number of dribble jumpers he’s taken. (This is only looking at half-court 3s, so won’t align perfectly with the totals from above.)
Whereas 76% of Kam’s 3s were of the spot-up variety in the first 8 games, only 51% of them are now spot ups. As with any small samples, one or 2 makes shift the numbers quite a bit, so I’m less concerned with the accuracy than the process of how they are coming.
Kam shot 34% on guarded spot ups last season and 32.5% in 2023. He’s a good, not great shooter on these contested situations. On unguarded spotups, he shot 47.3% last season and 42.7% in 2023. He’s elite with space.
But this season, only 31% of his spot up shots have been unguarded, compared to 41%+ each of the last 2 seasons. There are simply not enough creators on this team combined with the fact opponents have Kam as 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the scouting report now.
Doom and Gloom?
No, not at all. Marquette has played one of the toughest schedules in the country and has come away as impressive as just about anyone. The team isn’t getting lucky, in the KenPom sense, eeking past mid opponents. Losing at Dayton with Kam limited to less than 30-minutes due to foul trouble is the worst case scenario and even that required an uncharacteristic collapse defensively.
Simply speaking, Sean being out for the year confirms 2 things, a huge opportunity for one of the underclassmen to step up, a razor thin margin for error from Kam. I am much more confident in the latter than the former, but that’s not to say all hope is lost.
Tre Norman has been disappointing on the court, no doubt, and his minutes have reflected that. But prior to the Creighton game, I thought his defense had turned the corner and he was playing with much more confidence.
Damarius Owens isn’t putting up incredible stat lines or anything, but his minutes continue to hover around 10 or so, and he’s still one of the first off the bench. Asking a true freshman who missed so much time with injury to be the backup PG is a huge order, and what you hope to see from him is a better grasp of the defensive side, so that the natural offensive talents have time to blossom.
Stevie Mitchell is fabulous in the do-everything role while playing through significant injury, so you may not want a prolonged stretch of Stevie on ball, but a few more possessions a game may be in order. Same for Chase, you don’t need more minutes from him necessarily, but a few more with him at the helm could help offset the load.
All of this is to say, Sean’s potential role will have to be filled by the pieces MU has, and some creative ways to buy Kam a few more off ball possessions. This is still a legitimate Final 4 contender, with a bit less margin for error.
Long Term View
And though I hate to start talking 2026 and beyond 6 days into the new year, this news is a positive for Marquette long term, in my opinion. There was bound to be a huge drop off from Kam to anyone next year, but now you aren’t trading in a full year of healthy Sean for a quarter season (or less) of recovering Sean. That’s incredibly important.
Who knows if any of Sean, Damarius or Nigel James will be able to step into the lofty PG role Kolek and Kam will have set, but with 2+ years remaining for all of them, it sets up Marquette for a more stable transition.
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