I try not to get personal on here because as a “data guy” IRL, I preach about the ills of relying on a personal experience or single anecdote to make wider assumptions. But in this case, as we start to make sense of the current college basketball environment, where it seems like everyone and their cousin has entered the transfer portal and is looking for a large NIL check at their new landing spot, looking at it through a personal lens really does matter.
Have you ever had a job you really hated? Not just a bad job, or a job that kinda sucked. I mean one that poisoned your mind at all waking hours.
I took a new position within the company I worked for a few years back, and within 6 weeks I was Gob Bluth-ing to myself multiple times a day.
It wasn’t that I didn’t like the job, though I didn’t, but that it was actively encroaching my time and sanity even off of work hours. The people were great, the pay was alright, the title was nice, but I knew early into my tenure that I needed to bail. So I started applying everywhere and anywhere, and luckily found a great new home.
Have you ever seen the writing on the wall in a job you worked at, and knew the company (or your job within the company) was in danger? I’m not saying had a bad feeling or didn’t like it, simply that the conditions around you made it so that you couldn’t be certain of a future there even just a few months down the line.
That too was me. I was in my new role with a manager I adored in a position I had dreamed of, but watching stock prices, reading news clippings and seeing department after department get gutted, it wasn’t difficult to see what was happening. So I once again secured what I thought was best for myself and my family, and shored up the future by moving to a company with much more security in the short and medium term.
Have you ever been at a job with pay so stagnant, people you are training for the same position are at or above your salary level, multiple years into your tenure? The rage that begins to build at colleagues who through no fault of their own are a living and walking symbol of your futility. The unfairness of being punished for loyalty. It breeds a special kind of disdain for the world.
This is probably something everyone can relate to in some way. When our talent and effort is no longer compensated at an appropriate level, it’s nigh impossible to think clearly or perform to the best of our abilities. There’s too much rancor built up.
And, as you can guess by now, this too happened to me. Over 5 years into a job I adored, that had given my family an incredible lifeline and allowed me to flourish in a way I never knew possible, I began to hate every meeting, task and email because it was a reminder that I was not worthy of some random new grad’s pay. So, one more time, I got a new job.
Why am I walking you through anonymous score settling on a basketball blog? Because I want to make clear right at the top that you are not going to find any sympathy or understanding from me for coaches and pundits who are up in arms at the number of transfers we are seeing every season in the college ranks. My lived experience naturally aligns me with the student athletes trying to make the most of their individual situations.
For too long, players in mentally (or even physically) abusive environments had little recourse that didn’t penalize them. For too long, players locked in to poor program conditions couldn’t secure an exit without giving up eligibility. And until 3 years ago, no player could come close to making money off their on-court endeavors. I am beyond glad the tide is turning and the era of forced amateurism is finally coming to an end.
Player empowerment is good.
And yet…
Fan of the laundry
Being a fan is inherently kind of weird. You pledge your allegiance and emotional sanity on a group of players you don’t know and who could not care less about you, simply based on a geographic location in most cases.
Being a college fan is even stranger. You attach yourself to young men (and women) who more often than not won’t end up doing this professionally, and by rule, will stay 4 or 5 years at most. The semi-derogatory term “fan of the laundry” is such a perfect encapsulation. We are cheering for people simply off the basis that the colors and logos match the school we went to (or liked for some reason).
In the old days, like not even 5 years ago, that meant getting attached to good players for 2 to 3 year increments and constantly welcoming new faces and characters into your hearts. But even though 2 or 3 years seems relatively short compared to other fandoms we may hold, it was enough time to forge some incredible bonds.
I was in the Bradley Center in 2012 for Senior Day against Georgetown, and getting to say goodbye one last time to Darius Johnson-Odom (at Marquette for 3 years) and Jae Crowder (2 years) felt like losing a part of myself. They had helped bring so much joy in that timespan, and secured lifelong followers even after their Marquette days ended with the expiration of their eligibility.
And this is were the player empowerment era truly is having a negative impact. With transfers doubling within the past 4 years, it feels like the “special” connection of college fans and athletes has been severed. Now it’s just short term rentals, much like the pros.
I’m no Wisconsin fan, but I do empathize with that fanbase seeing Chucky Hepburn and his Bucky Badger tattoo do an about face after the season and leave his home for the last 3 seasons to finish his career at Louisville. I’m still not over Sam Hauser’s departure. If Stevie Mitchell, someone I consider integral to the soul of Marquette under Shaka Smart, had left this offseason for a random team, it would have hurt beyond what any boxscore metrics or advanced dataset would tell me.
This isn’t normal
And here is where we get to the crux of this piece. Stevie Mitchell did not leave. In fact, no one on Marquette left. For the 2nd consecutive season, Marquette did not have any player that was part of the rotation leave. And this season, no one did. Only 5 teams across Division I can say that, and 2 of those are service academies.
I will once more reiterate, this fact would be surprising most seasons, but with multiple transfers, COVID bonus years and NIL bonanzas, this is nearly unfathomable. I would not have thought any less of Marquette if a player or 2 had left after this season, and 100% expected it, both based off my eyes and what peeps in the back were saying. I spent 600 words up top making that clear. Players should be prioritize their limited playing and earning potential.
But the fact they all decided the best place for them was Marquette speaks volumes. And it’s not by chance, either.
Almost 2 years ago, Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish spoke at length about the changing nature of college recruiting. Teams were going to focus on bringing in established transfers rather than chase the young, non-5 stars out of high school that were much less of a sure thing.
And it really does make sense. Looking through Bart Torvik’s 2022 through 2024 data, there were 768 freshmen that logged at least 1 minute on high major teams. Of those 768, only 205 cracked at least 30% of minutes played, which is what I consider to be part of a rotation (about 12 minutes a game). In that same span, there were 734 1st year transfers, and 518 of them cracked the 30% of minutes played, a whopping 70% of all transfers,
What this shows is that there’s a very good reason why coaches love the transfer portal, even while dreading it. When you recruit a high school player, you know almost certainly you won’t be getting much production from them right away. It will be a multi-year process. With a transfer, you already know what they are, for the most part, and how to integrate them into the existing roster right away. Most coaches always live in fear of getting fired, so it makes logical sense why they would focus on the “surer” thing.
And with the ability to transfer freely, those same freshmen not getting minutes are more likely to take their ball and go find a place they will. Again, it is rational for all parties to act as they have. That’s why we are seeing the environment.
Enter Shaka Smart.
When you look at the fact that Marquette didn’t have any transfers this season, it needs to be acknowledged that this is Shaka’s plan and has been since he was hired in 2021. He wants to go the development route. And since then he has reiterated over and over in public settings. Of particular interest was an interview with Norlander last season.
“You ain’t getting a lot of these guys unless they’re getting some sort of bag,” Smart said. “Number one, we weren’t in position to do that. Number two, we’re not comfortable doing that. Number three, we didn’t want to ever prioritize some random guy from the Mountain West Conference over our current players. That’s ludicrous to me.”
It’s a two way street. For players to have trust in Shaka that their future is in the best position by sticking around in his program, they have to actually believe he has their best interest in mind. I do get the frustration with the lack of activity in the transfer portal, but seeing the results the past 2 seasons compared to other Big East teams, who am I to complain.
A special program
Don’t get me wrong, at the end of the day winning will supersede any individual growth or development. If Marquette ends up going 2-18 in the Big East, not only will we see a large number of transfers in, we will see a mass exodus out. What makes the Shaka era so particularly enthralling is that the continuity has allowed Marquette fans to forge deep bonds with players in a way most fans can’t any longer.
Kam Jones could have hit the portal and probably started a bidding war that made him one of the highest paid players in the country. But he told us he was all in weeks ago, and we get to savor him for a 4th consecutive season.
David Joplin sacrificed his usage last season and has never been the featured part of MU, the way his scoring talents dictate he could be. It would not have been out of the question to see him find a place where he could be that player.
Stevie Mitchell, Chase Ross, and Ben Gold all would have had a long list of high major suitors but none even had to announce they were returning, as it was never a question that they were leaving.
Tre Norman and Zaide Lowery are about to blow up, but waited their turn with nary a peep. Look around people, this is not the way the world works anymore.
The reason this Marquette program feels so unique is that we are still living in the “old model” where we invest our time and emotion in players for years on end WHILE STILL seeing historic results. Yes, 3 NCAA Tournament wins over 2 years is probably light for what “should” have happened, but I will continue to shout that Marquette had never gotten a 2-seed in the modern era, and now has done so back to back seasons.
Early rankings and projections also have Marquette as a top-25ish team and top-3 in the Big East once more, even after losing 2 historic players. If that isn’t special, I don’t know what is.
Come June, Shaka Smart will be able to say he’s had more NBA players than transfers. In an era of bare knuckled Portal Kombat, his method of relationship building and internal development is unmatched. I am still in awe.
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Paint Touches 
great article. Can you provide a little more explanation of the last chart about rotation transfer %?
Sure thing. Basically I was trying to differentiate between players that left because they couldn’t get any minutes (Ellis and Itejere for MU) and players that were getting minutes and left anyway. Those are 2 very different scenarios.
Thanks for the clarification. Now I realize it was only accounting for “outgoing” players. And I completely agree they are two very different scenarios. Still a bit stunned about Seton Hall losing its whole starting 5 this year!