What Marquette can expect from Western Kentucky

As someone who watches way too much college basketball this season, I can honestly say I hadn’t watched one minute of Western Kentucky before Sunday’s bracket reveal. So I spent a good part of Monday wading through Synergy clips to get a sense of what Marquette could expect from the Hilltoppers.

MU On Defense

Speed

When I say WKU plays fast, I don’t think that does justice to the breakneck attack they prefer to employ. They ranked first in KemPom for adjusted tempo, which measures how many possessions a game they played, adjusting for opponents and pace. Their 75.1 adjusted tempo is the fastest pace any team has played at in the last 3 seasons.

Here’s a graphical representation of the Big East and CUSA from CBB Analytics to show how many more possessions a game they played than anyone in their league, or in Marquette’s.

They were the only team this season to average 20 transition possessions a game, per Synergy, and they actually finished the season at 21.1. (WKU is the red dot and Marquette is the yellow one.)

But as shown above, their volume in transition doesn’t necessarily mean they play well, offensively. Their 1.029 PPP in transition ranked 229th in Division 1 this season. So they run a lot, though don’t do it particularly efficiently.

Sloppy Handles

One of the reasons they don’t fare particularly well in offensive rankings is they are prone to turn the ball over. Per KenPom, WKU ranked 266th this season in turnover percentage, coughing the ball up to the opposition 18.3 times every 100 possessions.

As seen below, that was worse than all but 1 Big East team, DePaul.

Marquette thrives at disrupting offenses with a very active defense, predicated on getting deflections and subsequently turnovers. It ranks 20th in the country, generating 21.1 turnovers per 100 possessions.

Half Court

One thing to note is that although WKU’s transition offense is inefficient compared to other transition offenses nationally, it is still significantly better than their half court defense. On the season, WKU average .899 PPP in half court settings compared to 1.029 in transition. Being able to slow down WKU is a significant factor.

When they are in their halfcourt, they get to the rim a lot. Per Synergy, 46.8% of their field goal attempts came at the rim, which is in the 97th percentile nationally. However, they don’t finish particularly well, only ranking in the 34th percentile with a 1.12 PPP.

As a team, they are decent from distance hitting 34.4% of their 3s, but they don’t take them all that often. They also aren’t particularly focused on offensive rebounding, grabbing them at a below average rate.

In sum, they are looking to run and gun almost every possession, and attack the rim mercilessly. However, they are prone to turnovers and don’t score all that efficiently.

MU On Offense

Solid D

The Hilltoppers are not an elite defensive team, but are quite solid for a 15 seed. They rank 103rd in KenPom for adjusted defensive efficiency. Across all 4 factors, their numbers are generally in the top-80, save for free throw rate, which is 204th. But what this tells us is that they won’t be run out of the gym simply by showing up.

They are an elite defensive team in transition, befitting their offensive nature, and do a good job inside the arc, where opponents only shoot 48.3% this season.

No True Block Threat

One thing to monitor is the absence of a true rim protector. Neither of their big men have a block rate over 3% and as a team they rank outside the top-200. Marquette is a team that feasts inside the arc, shooting 56%. When teams don’t have an eraser after penetration, it often means 2 points.

Despite the lack of a block threat, the Hilltoppers do a good job defending the rim. Opponents only took 36% of shots there, and only scored 1.08 points per shot. Both numbers translate to a very good interior defense (when you don’t adjust for opponent quality).

Lots of Switching P&R

Abd the thing I always check first about Marquette’s opponent: how do they defend the pick and roll. This has become a bit less pronounced without Kolek, but assuming his return, it’s still of vital importance for any opponent.

Here WKU also grades out well, ranking in the 73rd% for pick and roll plus pass defense, just inside the top-100.

Watching a couple dozen possessions, they do like to switch the high ball screen quite a bit, meaning the big involved in the pick gets stuck guarding the smaller point guard with the ball. That worked out well in Conference USA, but may not necessarily work as well against Kolek or Kam, so will be an interesting point to see how they attack the high screen.

Overall

If you were to ask me what kind of team Marquette was susceptible to get picked off by, WKU doesn’t fit that mold. That’s not to say MU will win by a million, just that the Hilltoppers’ profile isn’t that of a team which has given Marquette fits this year.

The fast pace may prove to wear out MU at times depending on Kolek’s fitness, but transition defense has been a strength as a whole this season. Add in the looseness with the ball and lack of 2nd chances, it would take a significant underperformance from Marquette to make this a tight game down the stretch. Possible, of course. Probable, not as much.