I hate previews. I don’t like reading them, so sure as heck don’t like writing them. They are dated quickly and are usually crap info you can find with 30 seconds of KenPom browsing.
But this isn’t your ordinary matchup. Marquette’s trip to No. 1 Connecticut on Saturday pits two top-5 teams in league play, which is only the 3rd time in the post-reformation Big East that it’s happened. It’s the game of the weekend on any site or podcast you read. And it has fairly large conference and NCAA Tournament implications.
So I caved and put together a little primer.
Rare Matchup
One of the reasons I relented was because Saturday’s game is indeed historic. It will be the first time Marquette ever plays in a top-5 Big East matchup, and more surprisingly, it’s only the 3rd time Connecticut will at home as well. And their Big East history goes much further back. Their last one was almost exactly 15 years ago.
Big FOX
The last time the Big East had a top-5 matchup, it set records (at the time) for viewers on FS1. This tilt is not only on a weekend, it is also broadcast on big FOX, which has much wider distribution and significantly higher viewership. Big East fox games this season are averaging 785K viewers while FS1 games are only at 165K viewers.
Here are the top 14 FOX and FS1 games involving Big East teams, notice a trend in the channel they are on?
(For a full interactive dashboard, click here.)
So that gives us a baseline of what will be the floor, and I’d say that’s the 1.09M for UConn vs St. John’s two weeks ago.
If you are looking at historical FOX numbers, the top number without a football lead-in from the past few years is 1.2M in 2022 for the Creighton vs Villanova Big East Tournament championship game. I will go out on a limb and say this easily tops that.
UConn Strengths
Bart Torvik has a great way to visually map out the 4-factors in a given matchup. In the screenshot below, you can see that UConn’s eFG for both offense and defense is significantly ahead of Marquette’s. They are very, very good.
The other big discrepancy is in rebounding. UConn’s offensive rebounding is elite, while Marquette’s is below average, though not terrible. The glass has proven to be a sore spot in Marquette’s losses, and it will be imperative to not let UConn feast with 2nd and 3rd chances.
The one area of strength for Marquette here, and in basically every game, is for turnovers. Marquette’s active defense tries to combat the rebounding disadvantage with copious turnovers. UConn’s offense isn’t prone to turnovers, though, but will be the area where Marquette has the only clear advantage.
P&R Problems
I’ve been beating the drum for 3 years now, and it’s not less true, but Marquette’s pick and roll prowess, as spearheaded by Tyler Kolek, makes it an incredibly difficult team to guard.
Although Kolek is slightly behind Mark Armstrong for most efficient P&R handler, per Synergy, the volume difference here makes Tyler’s efficiency that much more incredible.
So one of the first things I check when I’m doing my cursory pregame data ingestion is how opponents defend the pick and roll (including passouts to spot up shooters). Those that don’t contain it well end up like barbecue chicken, to use Kolek’s preferred terminology.
Unfortunately, UConn is the best P&R defense in the conference by a significant margin.
In fact, they are the best P&R D Marquette will have seen this season, ranking 12th in the country, and 4th best high major team. Donovan Clingan’s deep drops, incredible reach, and surprising athleticism mean there aren’t a lot of easy buckets to be found on the rolls, and P&R handlers have to settle for less than efficient midrange 2s.
The key here will be Oso Ighodaro’s 6-12 foot push shot. Against a similar deep drop 7-footer in Zach Edey, Oso’s short midrange game torched the Boilermakers, and was a key reason Marquette got to within one possession of a victory despite mediocre 3-point shooting.
If Oso and Tyler can hit the non-close 2s that will be available, the rest of the court will begin to open up for Marquette. Easier said than done, of course.
Connecticut Scoreboard PT Preview
For the past few years, Jared Kotler has been kind enough to have me on his show to talk UConn vs Marquette, so we obviously had to talk again prior to the game of the decade.
(As an aside, we recorded this before the Butler games, so I tried very purposefully not to anger the Hardwood Gods by overlooking the Bulldogs, hence a bit of hedging.)
Jerel McNeal and Rob Dauster
Having Jerel in the national conversation has been so cool. He has a fantastic mind and has developed into a really good analyst. I really enjoyed this 30+ minute conversation with him and Rob Dauster.
Prediction
While Marquette has conquered its road woes from earlier this season, I think this one may be a different animal. I don’t expect Marquette to get blown out or anything, but predicting a win isn’t what I personally believe will happen. For betting purposes, Marquette is 6-2 against the spread as a road underdog the past two seasons (with one of the two Ls being at UConn last year).
What I will say, Marquette has been playing at a near elite offensive level for a month, and only partially due to extremely hot shooting. I think Kam Jones has a big bounceback game and the result comes down to a few possessions down the stretch.
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Paint Touches 
Excellent article 👏 👍. very interesting and knowledgeable.