Maybe it’s foolish to hand out grades after a tiny 11-game sample. But I do like putting in writing how individuals looked at certain points in time, to be able to make comparisons later on.
As for the criteria, I didn’t go with anything super sophisticated, just the old gut and personal priors. Individual expectations obviously matter, but they are all judged against the same marker, not a grade compared to each player’s expectation. Being a star in your roll may be worth a bump in grade, even if the overall stats don’t necessarily shine.
Tyler Kolek: A+
I’m sure there could be some quibbles with a near perfect rating for Kolek here, but even with the immense preseason All-American expectations on him, the reigning Big East Player of the Year has lived up to all the hype and then some. Sure, his assists numbers are down a touch, with a slight increase in TO Rate, but he’s increased his offensive rating 5 points from last season on slightly higher usage, and increased his eFG% by 9 percentage points from last year.
That kind of jump just isn’t normally seen with a 4th year player that already was seen to be at the summit. He also became a 90% free throw shooter seemingly out of nowhere, after being around 80% his whole career. All this while still being the heart of an elite offense.
And while I could give you 100 more amazing stats (and probably will on Twitter) what has impressed me the most is how he has absolutely balled out in some of the biggest games. Against Purdue in the Maui championship, a quiet 22/7/6. Against Illinois on the road, nursing a bad ankle, a loud 24/6/4. Looking to avenge his coach against Shaka’s former team, an eye-popping 28/8/6.
Kolek is one of the best player’s to ever play for Marquette. Yeah I said it. Cherish every minute we have left with him.
Oso Ighodaro: A+
It took about 10 possessions in Marquette’s opener for me to realize I’d made a huge mistake. I had spent most of the summer writing about Kolek and Kam and Jop and Chase, and just gliding past Oso in the process.
As much as I’ve lauded Kolek the past 3 years, Oso deserves all that praise, and maybe more. No he didn’t get the individual hardware. He wasn’t an All-American in the preseason. He shouldn’t be shooting anything outside the paint. But where it matters most, Oso is Marquette’s heartbeat. There is no one on this team, and maybe even in college basketball, that comes close to replicating what he does on a nightly basis.
According to CBB Analytics, MU is 133 points better when Oso is on the floor this season, compared to when he’s off, with a Net Rating of 21.5, also a team best. No one else has a Net Rating even at 15. That’s why it hurt so much when he picked up his 2nd foul against Purdue in Maui, it changed the course of the game. Oh and by the way, Marquette outscored the Boilermaker by 9 points in the 44 possessions Oso played.
For the season, Oso’s ORating (123.7) is almost exactly where he finished last season and he’s doing it on higher usage. He’s getting to the free throw line at an absurd frequency, with a FTRate of 68.6% compared to 26.2% last year. Yes, his free throw percentage isn’t great at 59.3%, but even that is both up and trending up of late. He’s also become an elite offensive rebounder, snagging 11.1% of misses when he’s on the floor. Which is all to say, as great as he was last year, he’s taken yet another jump. He now lead Marquette in RAPM at +10.2, the 3rd best mark in the Big East.
As for a moment that sticks out, Oso’s 3-game run through 3 elite bigs in Maui put him on every NBA lottery radar and ensured, if there was even a shred of doubt, that this will be our last season with him in the blue and gold.
Kam Jones: A
I was thiiiis close to handing out a third A+ in as many grades, that’s how impressive Kam has been to start the season. The only reason I didn’t was because his minutes are significantly below where Kolek and Oso’s are, and down a smidge from last season.
But Kam has been an absolute flamethrower to start the year. Not only is he using over 24% of possessions this year, he’s increased his ORating by 10 points in the process. That’s a combination that’s simply unheard of, for someone who was already efficient. Just look at this 3-year progression.
Kam’s shooting is still elite, currently hitting 44% from distance, but he’s become a much more complete player, increasing his assist rate, all while decreasing his turnover rate. He’s getting to the line more often and now hitting above 80% there, where a player of his caliber should be.
I think one big change has been his shot selection, as we’re seeing way fewer 30+ foot moon balls, compared to how he began the season last year. And boy is he lethal on that jump shot. He’s currently scoring 1.35 PPP per jump shot, which is 3rd best in the Big East, minimum 5 attempts a game.
If I had to pick one moment that sums up who he is as a player, it would be when he hit a 3 against UCLA in Maui, and immediately turned to dap Dwayne Wade on the sideline. Swag personified.
David Joplin: C+
This may be a bit harsh on the whole, but given the expectations and opportunity at hand, I think Joplin hasn’t been bad, but is floating in the MEH range.
The good: As much as people will harp on it, Joplin’s defense has made immense strides, even from last season. He’s no longer getting lost off ball, and is much better at keeping his man ahead of him. The rebounding has to improve, but he has even earned Shaka’s trust to be on the court in late game situations.
Looking at Hoop-Explorer’s breakdown of Joplin the past 2 seasons, you can see that his defensive impact is up significantly, even adjusting for the types of lineups he plays with now.
The bad: But even within that screenshot, you can see that the offense has taken a significant dive compared to last season. And that’s what sticks out the most to me (and most fans, I assume). He’s a guy that has been lauded as an offensive weapon for years, with the ultimate green light even as a freshman. But now playing alongside some of the best offensive talent in the country more often, he can’t seem to find his groove.
Some of that will be simple regression to the mean on his 3-point ball. Synergy has him shooting at 30% on unguarded 3s this season, compared to 41% last season. That will change, I have 0 doubts. But the bigger spot I worry is that despite the promises of increased athleticism and mobility, his drives to the rim still look like they are happening in slow motion, and often result in poor shots. He’s only hitting 37% from inside the arc, the worst of any rotation player, and his FT Rate has actually decreased.
Where Joplin should be commended, and why he got a + next to that C, is that he’s adapted from being a 6th man who was tasked with filling it up, to being a complementary piece, as a 4th or 5th option with the starters. Hi usage has gone down from 23.7% last year, to 16.8% this season. I can’t remember a bigger drop with a relative modest jump in minutes for any MU player. So that at least tells us that he’s not forcing the issue, as he looks to find his offensive groove.
And because this felt way too negative, let us note his 19 points on 5/11 shooting from distance against UCLA helped Marquette notch a win that will end up being worth at least a seed line, just based on who MU would have faced should they have lost.
Chase Ross: B+
I had some fairly gaudy expectation of Chase coming into the season, not in the sense that he would be this team’s star or anything, but that he would be a crucial piece of the pie, and a legitimate 6th man of the year candidate.
While he won’t make many current year in review headlines for Marquette nationally, I do think he’s come close to his big billing, even if his box score stats don’t necessarily pop off the page (7.6 pts, 3.5 reb, 21 min). He’s still a low usage player, but has improved his ORtg to 117.8, from 107.2 last year, on the basis of incredible aggressiveness at the rim.
Chase has the 2nd highest FT Rate on the team at 47.4, nearly doubling last season’s mark. He’s particularly nasty when going downhill from the top of the arc using his left hand, and puts defenses in tough spots. While he isn’t a knockdown shooter or anything like that, he’s hanging just around the “average” mark, and makes opponents need to keep a player on him.
Looking at Hoop-Explorer’s RAPM, he’s had one of the biggest jumps on the team, from a nice +1.1 to a robust 5.5, which is a top-25 mark in the conference.
The reason I love RAPM so much is that it marries the box score stats with advanced models on/off that gauge offensive and defensive impact based on lineups. So this isn’t just a case of more minutes and more stats. He’s a much more impactful player, both on D where he’s still tenacious, and on O where every touch is a yam waiting to happen.
One last thing, while you never want injuries, Stevie’s absence has been an enormous opportunity for Chase to audition for more minutes and a bigger role, not just with the 2nd line.
The 4 starters + Chase were a +31 the past 2 games in 47 possessions after only playing 27 the first 9 games. I don’t think it’s time to alter the starters or anything, but more time with Chase and the other starters should be on the table.
As for my favorite moment, going to be tough to top this from a visual awe perspective. I still chuckle when I watch it again.
Stevie Mitchell: C
We’ll preface this with a caveat that Stevie’s hamstring injury, and subsequent loss of the last 2 games are very worrying for Big East play. Despite the shooting struggles (which we’ll detail shortly), his defensive impact is immense. When he’s on the floor, Marquette’s defense in a whopping 17 points better than when he’s off. Marquette is a better team when Stevie is healthy and contributing. Full stop.
But we do have to mention the shooting woes. He’s never been a knockdown shooter, or anything like that, but this season’s version is nearly unbelievable, and not in a good way. Mitchell is shooting 13% from 3. You read that correctly, 13%. It’s so low where it’s almost comical. He shot 30% last season and 35% the year before, he’s not bad.
But as the struggles continue, and defenses continue to adjust, it shrink the spacing on which Marquette’s offense thrives. Take this to the grave, there is reversion coming. Stevie is 3/14 (21.4%) on unguarded spot up 3s after shooting 33% on them last year. The low volume means a few makes will get the number up to acceptable levels.
With all things Stevie, no box score stat will ever measure his true influence. He always makes an impact on or off the floor.
Sean Jones: B-
The first thing you have to do when talking about Sean Jones is read Mark Strotman’s story on him integrating into a larger role with this offense.
Now that we have that out of the way, we can mention that the advanced metrics like Sean less than most eye tests. His RAPM is a flat 0.0. Evan Miya’s BPR has him at 1.0, which is worst of any of the main rotation pieces. His offense is barely above average at an ORtg of 102.2, and he’s also shooting 13% from 3.
So why does Sean get the higher grade than Stevie, despite significantly inferior production? He’s got a much different role. Stevie plays primarily with starters and is expected to provide D and an occasional bucket. Sean is being asked to head the 2nd and 3rd lineups, and is a primary ball handler .
He’s clearly made a significant jump, and already is outpacing the lowly minute projections the Marquette media had of him.
I do think his minutes may fall some more if he can’t address the shooting issues, but as a creative force, being able to give Kolek a breather on the ball has done tremendous good.
And boy does Sean have a flare for the dramatic. He hit a huge 3 against Illinois to help seal a road W and this one below is probably the most important single shot of the season.
Ben Gold: B+
Gold showed flashes down the stretch last season, but the start to this one has been significantly better. He’s only playing 35% of minutes, which is nearly twice that of last year, but he looks so much more comfortable in his minutes on the floor.
His improvement in the defensive rebounding department is particularly impressive. He was an awful rebounder, grabbing less than 8% of defensive rebounds last season, but is currently sitting at 19.6, which is the best on the team by far. And this has become even more noticeable in the “Golden Bear” lineups where he and Oso share the court.
Per Hoop-Explorer, Golden Bear lineups grab offensive rebounds at a top-20 rate (36.7%), and are a top-35 team at not allowing opponents to grab OReb (24.5). In any lineup without both on at the same time, Marquette ranks below 270th for both O and D rebounding.
There are plenty of sample size caveats, of course, but with rebounding issues continuing to plague Marquette at times, it’s good to see there is a lineup that can limit that damage.
And the other aspect of Ben’s game that makes him so unique is he’s a legitimate threat in the pick and pop, unlike most other current players. Gold has taken 18 pick and pop 3s, most on the team by far. Where his pick and pop becomes incredibly deadly is his ability to put it on the deck.
Tre Norman, Zaide Lowery, Al Amadou: Inc
While each have had notable moments this season, it wouldn’t be fair to give them a grade at this point.
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