Before every season, I like to put my money where my mouth is and project how many minutes each player will play. It’s not that I’m particularly good at it (far from it) but it’s a great way to see just how much changes from what the narrative/expectation is the 6 months of the offseason.
2023 Results
Before we jump into this upcoming season, here’s a refresher on what I thought would happen in 2023.
Not going to lie, pretty proud of how I nailed the starters. My biggest miss was being 3 minutes low on OMax, but in general, well within the realm of acceptable. Same goes for Sean Jones and David Joplin, who weren’t exact, but who’s roles I got fairly close on.
And then what happened?
Obviously I couldn’t have foreseen Zach Wrightsil’s season-killing injury, so those 22 minutes ended up missing completely, but I can’t believe how low I was on Chase Ross. I thought he’d get token freshmen minutes, and I don’t think I was alone on that island. We heard much more about both Sean and Ben over the summer.
That’s why you play the game.
2024 Minutes
Strangely enough, despite having way more of a solidified team coming back. I had a much more difficult time projecting minutes for this season. I’ve poked and prodded and changed it around all summer, and still am not comfortable with the results.
But it’s time to let go and let the chips fall where they may.
The thing I have to be upfront with right away is that averages don’t necessarily tell the full story. By that I mean, I fully expect Tyler and Oso to play 34-ish minutes in the biggest games. But unlike last season when there were no real backups, I expect their replacements (primarily Sean and Ben) to not have “as big” a fall-off, and thus might see extended minutes against non-elite opponents.
But then again, the schedule is incredibly loaded, with 6 of the first 9 games possibly being against top-30 opponents. And with the Big East angling for 6, maybe 7 bids, that doesn’t leave that many games for “load management” or whatever phrase you want to use here.
Let me expand a bit on why I have players where I have them.
Studs (25+) – Tyler Kolek, Oso Ighodaro, Kam Jones
I’ve written about all 3 at length for years now, so will keep it short.
Tyler is the best creator in the country, full stop. He could easily play 35+ minutes on any team in the country. The consensus All-American doesn’t even have to be as good as he was last year and still could be the best guard in America.
Oso Ighodaro won’t be on most top-5 center lists, but his contributions are unlike anyone else’s on the team. Not only is he an elite creator, but he can defend just about anyone. He and Kolek have a connection that makes them the deadliest P&R duo in the country. Last season, he had more dunks than all but 1 Marquette TEAM(!) from 2010 to 2021.
Kam has a told reporters that he’s healthy this season after battling tonsil issues that prevented him from eating or sleeping comfortably
Add another year of experience to that full bill of health, plus an extra dose of confidence (per his conversation with Marquette Hoops), and I fully expect Marquette’s leading scorer to remain as such.
I did have Kam’s minutes down a smidge from last season, but consider him an undisputable member of the core 3 that will be on the court in the biggest moments all season.
Key Contributors (20+) – David Joplin, Stevie Mitchell, Chase Ross
We imagined there would be a fierce competition to fill the OMax hole in the starting lineup, but before that conjecture could even get going, Shaka let the world know that David Joplin would be taking that spot.
And it makes sense. Joplin’s 6’8″ frame makes him a natural wing, able to guard the bigger 4s, and even cover spot minutes at the 5 depending on lineups. But the biggest question with him has been defensively. We know he can score, and our conversation with Nevada Smith earlier this month confirmed that Jop’s shooting had been lights out in practice. But on the other end, Marquette has struggled at times with Joplin at the 4.
Using last season’s data from Hoop-Explorer, we know that the returning 4 starters + Jop was not a very successful combination. As the 3rd most used lineup, but with only 72 possessions together, it had a luck adjusted Net Rating of +1.8 points per 100 possessions outside of garbage time. In other words, when you adjust for opponent quality, this 5-man lineup barely broke even on the court.
In fact, in the 547 non-garbage possessions that Joplin played without OMax on the floor last season, not adjusting for opponent strength, Marquette was slightly negative in Net Rating.
All of this is to say, even though it’s clear that Joplin will get heavy minutes, I still am not convinced he’ll be on the court in all spots of the game, so have him right under that 25-minute cutoff.
The caveat to everything I just typed above is that no data could have seen last season’s progressions coming. Players improve from season to season in ways the numbers simply can’t capture. And if you’ve followed Marquette at all this season, the 2nd word out of Shaka’s mouth after Joplin has always been VersaClimber. The Journal Sentinel’s Ben Steele wrote a must-read piece on what that program has done for Jop’s physique.
Joplin’s body composition changed; he is leaner but stronger. Interestingly, he is listed at 225 pounds, up from 220 last season.
“He’s playing with more force,” Smith said. “He’s able to sprint the court easier and more. And he’s trying to dunk way more often than he has. I think (MU’s foreign trip to) Italy was the first time he’s dunked in a game for us.”
https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2023/10/11/marquettes-david-joplin-in-elite-shape-thanks-to-versaclimber-program/71132722007/
If the changes to his body allow him to increase his defensive level, he’s going to make this minute prediction look silly.
Stevie Mitchell also has that potential. He’s already averaged 23 minutes a game, and his defensive tenacity will become even more vital with OMax’ departure. In the scrimmage and practice that were open to the public, Stevie was one of the first I heard or read about as impressing.
My holdup remains seeing the shooting in live game settings.
Mitchell did have a few games where the scoring acumen he was known for in high school came to the surface, primarily against Villanova, but in general, despite having 2 all-world distributors and acres of space, he wasn’t able to make defenses pay for leaving him open, shooting just 29% from the corners.
Without even adding any sort of dribble drive or creation to his game, being able to hit at a better clip from those 2 corners will change so much about Mitchell’s potential court time.
Chase Ross is in a similar boat, but with even greater potential if you ask me, and I went in depth on just why I think he’s primed for a breakout season.
Despite having gone all in on the Ross-y Posse, he’s still behind all 5 starters in the pecking order at this point in time. And while he’s a physical specimen, we have not seen much of Ross at the 4 in his short Marquette career, so can’t exactly predict he’ll be the first option, as that would mean running a ton of 4-guard sets.
One of the bits of information that leaked out from the secret scrimmage against Michigan on Oct. 28th was that the Wolverines pummeled Marquette with physicality. We obviously weren’t there and only heard rumblings that Marquette was testing out the bench and different rotations a bit more in this practice setting, so can only take so much away. But the concern remains that the rebounding woes that have afflicted Marquette all of Shaka’s tenure would only be made worse with heavy doses of 4-guard sets.
So with all that in mind, I jammed as many backcourt minutes as I could find into Ross’ column, and snuck 5 in at the 4.
Rotation (10+) Ben Gold, Sean Jones
Ben Gold didn’t have quite the freshman impact of his two peers, Sean Jones or Chase Ross, but there was plenty to like about his debut campaign, particularly the way he was able to become a more consistent contributor at the end of the regular season.
Check out these splits from the non-con, compared to the Big East season.
It’s a tiny sample, and if you dig in you see a good chunk of that damage came against the Big East bottom dwellers, but it’s not like he was killing it against the cupcakes in the non-conference portion, so seeing that in-season growth was a huge positive sign. Look at that screenshot again, not only were most of the metrics significantly better, he compared favorably to most national comparisons.
Yes, this is only a tiny sample against mostly weaker opponents, but you see glimmers of what makes the staff believe he can be if it all comes together. A stretch 5 that can give Marquette shooting from every position on the court, and throw opponents that try and use drop-coverage to combat Marquette’s pick and roll a curve with the pick and pop.
The issue comes in that, although he’s the tallest player on the team, he was a horrendous defensive rebounder, and I don’t use that lightly.
Per TRank’s data, he’s the worst 6’8″+ rebounder Marquette has had since at least 2008. And it’s not like he was busy boxing others out. When Gold was on the court, Marquette gave up an OReb% of 35.9% last season, which was 360th in D1 last year.
If he can shore up the rebounding, I can potentially se Gold cracking into the rotation tier, but for now, those 16 minutes still feels a little bullish on my part.
Sean Jones is on the oposite end of the spectrum. I know I’m low on him, but can’t figure out where to cut to get him more minutes. The speedy guard is fully healthy and making positive impressions in the secret scrimmages, per reports that have filtered out. He’s a natural point and has an ability to get into the paint with his dribble that only Kolek can match.
Not to mention that despite not putting up monster stats or minutes, his injury really took a toll on the team last season, as the team sputtered during a 3-week stretch in February where he was either out, or just coming back. In that 6-game stretch, Marquette’s adjusted offensive rating was 111.9, good for 79th in the country, compared to the 118.7 it averaged across the whole season.
Of course, that’s not simply due to missing Jones, there was plenty of fatigue and other factors, but it did highlight that even in a smaller role, Jones’ minutes weren’t easily improved on.
Sean’s issue, offensively, has been the lack of ability to finish against taller opponents, combined with pedestrian 3-point shooting. Teams were not afraid to leave him alone, as he only shot 31.7% from beyond the arc, and would rather try and prevent him from entering the paint. And once there, he was a below-average finisher, who didn’t have a great feel for kickouts and dumpoffs.
He’s a tenacious defender on the perimeter that can get deflections and steals, again, a trait that the team as a whole will need to improve on with what is returning. If he can stabilize the shot, pick his spots better and take the burden off of Kolek as the main creator for stretches at a time, he’ll probably be closer to 20 minutes than 10.
Spot Player (0-10) Tre Norman, Zaide Lowery, Al Amadou, Caedin Hamilton
I’m just not big on putting expectations on freshmen. I’ve desperately undersold Kam and Chase’s contributions that past 2 seasons, but even under Wojo, I just don’t have enough connection or feel to know what to expect from non-elite recruits. So I set the expectations way down low.
Tre Norman had plenty of hype from the staff during his senior season, and he played well, but I don’t see him above any of the guards listed above, and he’s not going to be playing the 4 or 5 any time soon. So 5 minutes seems fair.
Zaide Lowery impressed fans at the scrimmage and practice, has length that this team needs, and has gotten good reviews from Shaka in press conferences. But I’ve also heard his defense is not there yet. If you want an O-first wing, you pretty much already got that in Joplin, with way more rep and experience, though less athleticism.
With Al Amadou, barring unforeseen injuries to Oso or Ben, it may be a bit of an Itejere-like learning curve, where the minutes are hard to come by outside of garbage time. But you can see from the highlights that have filtered that he’s the kind of wiry 5 that Shaka loves. He’s got plenty of length and athleticism, now it’s about harnessing it.
Caedin Hamilton will sit out this season and redshirt, per the team.
Consensus
Because I’m never happy without further consultation, I asked some MU followers to also give me their projections, and here is what that consensus looks like.
Luckily for everyone, only a few more days until we can stop talking in hypotheticals and start stressing about the real thing. Can’t wait.
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Paint Touches 
Great analysis on Marquette’s 2024 projections! 🏀 Your detailed breakdown of player minutes and roles shows a deep understanding of the team dynamics. I’m especially intrigued by your insights on Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro’s potential this season. 🌟 It’s impressive how you’ve balanced stats with player development predictions. Looking forward to seeing how these projections play out in the actual games. Go Marquette! 👏 #MarquetteBasketball #CollegeHoops 🏆📈